Production losses from African Swine Fever have exceeded initial estimates. When you combine the shortfalls in China with those in the rest of Asia where the disease has popped up, Rabobank says there are both challenges and opportunities for protein exporters.
Rabobank expects China’s pork production losses to total between 25 and 30 percent. The disease is also in Vietnam, where productions losses will reach 10 percent. ASF has also reached into Cambodia and Europe.
Animal protein companies that have the necessary supply, as well as access to Chinese and Asian markets, will likely benefit from the impact of ASF. The European Union, the U.S., and Brazil appear to be in the best place to respond to the increased import demand for pork and other animal proteins in China and Asia. However, the disease outbreak in eastern Europe could potentially restrict the amount of available European exports.
The U.S. is a major pork producer, yet the tariffs in place on U.S. pork exports to China are restricting current trade opportunities. The U.S. is also a major poultry exporter but can’t send shipments to China because of a ban that’s in place thanks to avian influenza back in 2015.