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USDA Reports Flash: New-Crop Corn, Soybean Ending Stocks Projected | KRVN Radio

USDA Reports Flash: New-Crop Corn, Soybean Ending Stocks Projected

WASHINGTON (DTN) — USDA came in at analysts’ projections in one of the first looks at the 2017-18 new-crop ending stocks for corn, but were on the low end of pre-report estimates for new-crop soybean ending stocks.

USDA released the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at noon as well as new-crop wheat production.

USDA’s U.S. estimates should be viewed as neutral for new-crop corn, bullish for new-crop soybeans and neutral to bullish for new-crop wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.

USDA’s world estimates are bullish for new-crop corn, neutral for new-crop soybeans and bearish for new-crop wheat, Hultman said.

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA set 2017-18 (new crop) corn ending stocks at 2.11 billion bushels, right at the pre-report average. USDA maintained production for the newly planted crop at 14.065 billion bushels, which would be 1.08 billion bushels below the 2016-17 crop.

The 2016-17 (old crop) ending stocks were pegged at 2.295 billion bushels for corn.

SOYBEANS

The 2017-18 soybean ending stocks came in at 480 million bushels, which was 88 million bushels below the pre-report analyst average.

USDA projected the 2017-18 soybean production at 4.255 billion bushels, down from 4.307 billion bushels in the 2016-17 crop.

Old-crop soybean ending stocks pegged at 435 million bushels, which is 10 million bushels lower than the April report.

WHEAT

2017-18 winter wheat production is pegged at 1.25 billion bushels, down 25% from last year. As of May 1, the yield forecast was 48.8 bushels per acre, down 6.5 bushels from last year’s record yield. These numbers, however, also likely do not factor in the impact of April’s winter storm on the winter crop.

Hard red winter wheat production was pegged at 737 million bushels, down 32% from a year ago. The soft red winter wheat crop was forecast at 297 million bushels, down 14% from last year. All white wheat production was projected at 212 million bushels.

A large chunk of the decline in winter wheat production came from Kansas, where the average yield is pegged at 42 bushels per acre, down from 57 bushels last year. Production for the 2017-18 crop in Kansas is projected at 289.8 million bushels, down 38% from the 2016-17 crop.

2016-17 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels)
May Average High Low April 2015-16
Corn 2.295 2.327 2.500 2.269 2.320 1.737
Soybeans 0.435 0.439 0.466 0.417 0.445 0.197
Grain Sorghum 0.048 0.050 0.053 0.047 0.048 0.037
Wheat 1.159 1.162 1.200 1.130 1.159 0.976
2017-18 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels)
May Average High Low Outlook
Corn 2.110 2.111 2.400 1.835 2.215
Soybeans 0.480 0.572 0.759 0.458 0.420
Wheat 0.914 0.974 1.317 0.863 0.905
2017-18 U.S. PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels)
May Average High Low Outlook 2016
Corn 14.065 14.204 15.148 13.975 14.065 15.148
Soybeans 4.255 4.246 4.342 4.099 4.180 4.307
2017-18 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels)
May Average High Low Outlook 2016-17
All Wheat 1.820 1.920 2.310 1.776 1.837 2.310
All Winter Wheat 1.250 1.328 1.617 1.200 NA 1.672
HRW 0.737 0.795 1.047 0.686 NA 1.082
SRW 0.297 0.309 0.335 0.260 NA 0.345
White 0.212 0.224 0.263 0.194 NA 0.245
2016-17 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
May Avg. High Low April 2015-16
Corn 223.90 223.70 228.80 221.60 222.98 211.83
Soybeans 90.14 87.80 89.00 86.10 87.41 77.13
Wheat 255.35 252.20 253.20 250.70 252.26 241.74
2017-18 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
May Avg. High Low
Corn 195.27 208.80 227.00 190.70
Soybeans 88.81 87.40 94.00 82.50
Wheat 258.29 244.40 254.40 238.00
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2016-2017
May Avg. High Low April 2015-16
Corn
Brazil corn 96.0 94.3 95.9 93.0 93.5 67.0
Argentina corn 40.0 38.5 39.0 37.0 38.5 29.0
Soybeans
Brazil soybeans 111.6 111.3 112.0 110.5 111.0 96.5
Argentina soybeans 57.0 56.1 57.0 55.0 56.0 56.8
2016-17 2015-16
Wheat May Apr May Apr
European Union 145.47 144.66 160.48 160.00
FSU – 12 130.24 130.24 117.96 117.96
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