Water Street Solutions
Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.24.13
2013-05-24T03:47

Corn futures were softer as traders collected profits ahead of the extended holiday weekend.  There will be no CBOT grain trade Sunday night or Monday during the day.  The USDA announced 180,000 metric tonnes of U.S. new crop corn to China this morning.  Given China’s firm prices, U.S. new crop remains a bargain.  Cash sources said that 60,000 metric tonnes Brazil corn cargo was secured by Taiwan’s MIPA group for shipment in August.  They paid $1.59 over Sept futures with basis and freight, and Bunge was the seller.  Traders say a private group in Israel purchased a total of 75,000 metric tonnes of optional origin corn out of 80,000 metric tonnes originally sought.  The majority is thought to have originated from South America.  Argentina’s Ag Ministry pegged the corn harvest there at 65% complete for the week ending May 23rd. 
                                          
Wheat futures struggled on profit taking and along with fund selling.  Funds sold an estimated 2,000 wheat contracts.  This morning USDA confirmed the sale of 180,000 metric tonnes SRW to China for the 2013/14 marketing year.  This has mostly been priced into the market over the past 48 hours.  Wheat conditions in China remain fairly decent with northern crops reproducing and filling with timely rainfall expected and ongoing irrigation usage.  Meanwhile, the drier areas of southwestern Canadian Prairies will see favorable rain coverage over the weekend and next week.  Fieldwork in Saskatchewan is now 27% complete, lagging the 44% average pace for this part of May.  Canada is in need of drier weather to help planting progress as time is nearly running out.
            
Soybean futures were mixed Friday as the July/November spread unraveled.  Funds sold an estimated 7,000 CBOT contracts in today’s trade.  July beans fell fast on rumors that China might be cancelling 3-4 cargos of U.S. beans.  July beans also came under pressure on weaker soymeal prices and news that Argentina’s port strike has been settled.  Index funds will begin rolling out of the July positions on May 31.  Basis bids have backed off as much as $.80 per bushel from last week’s peak.  Some central Illinois bids are still running $.65 over July futures.  On Monday, the national cash price reached the highest level since November, but managed to back off $.08 on Wednesday despite the flat futures market.  Argentina Ag Ministry said it estimates the country’s soybean harvest for the week ending May 23rd at 90% complete, up from last week’s figure of 85%.  Bean production was reduced to 50.6 million metric tonnes, down 700,000 metric tonnes from the previous estimate.  
                             
Lean hog futures gained today as buyers were emboldened by higher pork prices.  There are expectations that cash prices will remain firm heading into next week.  Midday mandatory FOB plant prices were significantly higher with carcass at 95.88, up 2.12 with strength in belly and rib prices.  Estimated daily slaughter was 405,000 head today with a Saturday kill of 2,000 head, putting the weekly total at 2,054,000 head versus 2,030,000 last week.  The 2-day CME Lean Hog Index settled at 93.42, down .07 on 5/23.
                                                                  
Live cattle futures ended firmer with futures inching closer to the cash market as shorts covered their previously held positions.  Some cash cattle sales were reported at $124 live in the South and $202 dressed in the North with low volume.  Beef prices are expected to soften going into next week.  Estimated daily slaughter today was estimated at 124,000 head with a Saturday kill of 27,000 head, putting a final weekly total at 648,000 head.  This compares to 652,000 head last week.  Wholesale prices have dipped today with Choice quoted $1.44 lower this morning at 209.93, while Select was $.41 lower at $191.11 on 64 loads.

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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.23.13
2013-05-23T03:31

Corn futures extended yesterday’s gains supported by Chinese buying interest along with strong demand from U.S. ethanol makers.  Fund buying today was estimated at 6,000 CBOT corn contracts.  Ethanol stocks continue to drop with yesterday’s EIA ethanol stocks figure at 16.182 million barrels.  RIN values for 2013 production rose to $.89, which is a strong incentive to do discretionary blending.  E-85 prices are becoming more competitive on a BTU basis.  This morning’s weekly export sales report showed 2012/13 corn sales at 4.1 million bushels, below 5 million bushels needed each week to stay in step with the government’s projection.  Sales for the 2013 marketing year came in at 13.4 million bushels.  Japan was the leading buyer on new crop followed by China.
                                      
Wheat futures rose Thursday on spillover support from the neighboring grains.  Fund buying consisted of 6,000 contracts.  Weekly export sales for wheat for the 2012/13 marketing year came in at 8.8 million bushels, below 13 million bushels needed each week to match the USDA’s projection.  However, the figure exceeded expectations and was considered friendly.  May 31 is the final day for old crop wheat to be shipped.  Sales for the 2013/14 marketing year were at 26.2 million bushels.  Large new crop sales for U.S. wheat had the trade thinking that China is back in the market for U.S. soft red wheat.  Ag Canada boosted estimates of Canadian wheat production to 29.4 million metric tonnes.  The figure is slightly above the USDA estimate of 29 million metric tonnes. 
       
Soybean futures saw volatile action today while initially finding strength on rumors that China was pricing U.S. beans for June/July time frame.  News that Chinese crushers were covering short positions put a squeeze on the market, triggering a series of buy stops and sending July beans $.50 higher before the massive sell off.  Prices began to retreat once it was announced that the port strike in Argentina that began earlier this week has now been settled and workers could return to work as soon as it is ratified.  However, later after the close there was word that the strike is still on-going, but talks are making progress.  About 50 ships have been stalled since they walked off the job earlier this week and another 50 are waiting for arrival.  This morning the USDA announced the private sale of 115,000 metric tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year.  Weekly export sales for beans were pegged at 6.7 million bushels for the 2012/13 marketing year.  Sales for the 2013/14 marketing year came in at 30.8 million bushels.
                           
Lean hog futures were softer in reaction to news that the cold storage supply is at a record high.  Some traders decided to book profits amid talk of lower packer bids next week which could pressure the cash market.  The monthly Cold Storage Report showed end of April frozen pork stocks at 698.8 million pounds, up 5.9% from the previous year and up 7.9% from last month.  The CME Lean Index for the 2-day period ending May 21st was 93.44, up from 93.29.
                                                              
Live cattle futures ended weaker after light cash sales were reported yesterday in Texas at $124 on a live basis, down $1.00.  Earlier wholesale prices set another record high for Choice at $211.35, while Select was $.54 lower as the spread continues to widen.  This morning the USDA reported 20,400 metric tonnes of beef was sold for export last week.  The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report was somewhat friendly for beef.  The inventory was down 1.2% from the previous month and smaller than the end of April 2012.                                             

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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 5.22.13
2013-05-22T03:40

Corn futures rallied credited to big China purchases of new crop corn, the 10-15 day U.S. weather forecast and the drop in ethanol stocks.  The 10-15 day outlook is calling for hot and dry weather with below normal precipitation for the southern two thirds of the country.  This morning the USDA reported the sale of 180,000 metric tonnes of U.S. corn to an unknown destination for the 2013/14 marketing year.  There was also the announcement of 360,000 metric tonnes of U.S. corn sold to China for the 2013/14 marketing year.  China’s National Development & Reform Commission estimated the country’s mid-May hog to corn ratio at 5.33 to 1.  The EIA ethanol stocks figure came in at -.2 million barrels to 16.2 million barrels.  Production was up 17,000 barrels to 875,000 barrels per day. 
                                        
Wheat futures climbed with corn on continued weather concerns, both in the U.S. and abroad, and talk of some potential export business.  An official with U.S. Wheat Associates said U.S. exports of good grade wheat to Southeast Asia is still important, stating that the past couple years growth in exports to the region averaged 8%.  Recent dry conditions across much of southern Russia, Ukraine and parts of Eastern Europe have offered support to EU markets.  Eastern Australian farmers are contending with the same issues U.S. growers in the Plains dealt with last fall.  The Western Plains continue to drag along, with scattered moisture in the forecast for parts of Oklahoma, Eastern Kansas, and eastern Nebraska which could help fill heads on late maturing wheat. 

Soybean futures closed higher although traders collected profits on the recent surge of bull spreading that pushed the July/Nov spread near the $2.60 area yesterday.  Meal futures are gaining due to reduced U.S. production and continued strong export interest.  As a result, buyers are chasing old crop bean bushels in the cash market.  However, bean basis bids in the Midwest have fallen anywhere from $.20 to $.50 basis the July with several processors rolling those contracts out to the August and November futures.  Bulls point out that the tight old crop situation is not going away and since the crop is not completely in the ground yet, it will be a long ways off before new crop bushels become available.  Meanwhile, Argentina is looking for approval to export biodiesel to the U.S. 
                    
Lean hog futures were significantly higher while finding support from the firm tone in the cash market.  Solid gains in pork cut-out values late yesterday also emboldened buyers.  Traders were initially cautious given weak packer profit margins and slower packer demand for inventory next week due to the Memorial Day Holiday.  The CME Lean Index for the 2-day period ending May 20th was 93.29 from 93.18 the previous session.  This now puts June futures at a slight premium to the cash market.
                                                        
Live cattle futures were softer on demand concerns and technical selling pressure.  Traders are concerned how consumers will react to high beef prices after wholesale prices surged this spring.  Light cash sales occurred in Texas at $124 on a live basis with volume estimated at around 2,500 head.  In Nebraska and Iowa, asking prices are running around $204-$206 on a dressed basis.  Volume is expected to remain light for the balance of the week as packers will be buying for a short holiday week ahead.  Last Trading Day in the May Feeder Cattle and the options will be Thursday, May 23.  Any in-the-money options will be exercised/assigned on Friday, and the futures will be cash settled on Monday, May 27.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 5.21.13
2013-05-21T03:45

Corn futures slid after traders extracted weather premium out of the market following the USDA’s progress report which showed plantings at 71%.  Although the figure was below the five-year average of 79%, it was considered less bullish since it was at the higher end of the trade guesses.  .  The corn crop is estimated to be 19% emerged versus 46% for the five-year average and is running a couple of weeks behind.   The Dakotas and Minnesota received heavy rains yesterday, and prevent plant dates in the Dakotas is May 25th for corn.  According to analysts, this still could push a million acres over to soybeans.  The corn market has also struggled due to increased corn imports from South America.  In other news, a group of rural Argentine agricultural producers intend to protest next Tuesday, May 28th.  The protest is to show the Argentine public the disparity between what rural ag producers receive for their goods versus prices being charged on retail shelves.
                                       
Wheat futures sagged on profit taking and U.S. spring wheat plantings which came in at 67% complete, gaining on the five-year average of 76%.  Funds were sellers of an estimated 1,000 wheat contracts.  There are concerns about getting the balance of the crop planted due to wet conditions and the 6-10 forecast showing rains for the northern U.S.  Flooding in the Dakotas and Minnesota has halted spring wheat planting for the time being.  Meanwhile, 43% of the winter wheat crop is headed, well behind the 5-year average of 62% and 80% a year ago.  The market found some buying support during the session on rumored export business.  Japan is tendering for 122,000 metric tonnes of milling wheat this week.  

Soybean futures were mixed with July rallying as it tries to close the gap on continuation charts.  Bull spreading continues to push the July/November spread even further at around a $2.57 ½ inverse, up 17 ½ on the day.  Shorts are exiting with likelihood that there will be no delivery receipts again for July deliveries. News that 11 cargoes of soybeans were headed into the U.S. from South America was a limiting factor.  In addition, Chinese soybean prices remain strong, and crush margins have been softer which could cause them to ease up on imports in the near term.  Port workers in Rosario, Argentina went on strike yesterday seeking higher wages to keep pace with inflation.  This morning the consulting firm Safras & Mercado trimmed its projection of Brazil’s output to 82.5 million metric tonnes.  Although the figure is smaller than the USDA’s May estimate, it is 22% above last year’s crop.  The soybean harvest in Argentina is estimated at a bit over 90% complete.
                     
Lean hog futures posted modest gains as cash prices remain firm with continued seasonal demand lifting prices.  Gains were limited by yesterday’s pork cutout values which were $.63 lower led by the sharp break in rib prices.  Packer’s profit margins are tighter, and Monday just 234.6 loads of pork changed hands.  Packers say that they have this week’s kill needs met, and demand for cash hogs is lighter for early next week because of the Memorial Day holiday.  Slaughter came in slightly below trade expectations at 411,000 head.
                                                    
Live cattle futures were higher with wholesale prices setting another record high for Choice at $210.46, up $.21.  Traders were also emboldened by futures steep discount to the cash market.  However, some traders are quick to point out that the market’s upside remains limited as high beef prices raise questions about consumer demand.  Slaughter came in at expectations at 124,000 head.  According to the USDA’s weekly conditions report, the overall U.S. pasture and range condition improved 3% in the good category and 1% in the excellent category.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.20.13
2013-05-20T03:38

Corn futures incurred some losses with July down the most on spread profit taking.   Traders were looking at some widely spread rains over the weekend to halt some progress as they expected planting to range from 55-70% complete.  This afternoon’s report showed the figure at 71%, but still off from the five-year average of 79% for this period.  Areas west of the Mississippi River were interrupted due to heavy, widespread showers and some growers may be forced to re-plant in some spots, especially in the Northern Plains.  The rain activity will move east this week, and the north Plains could be subject to another rain event Memorial weekend.  The USDA announced the sale of 120,000 tonnes of meal to an unknown destination for the 2013/14 crop year.  Ethanol margins remain fairly attractive, and ethanol plants have been actively buying due to solid margins.
                                        
Wheat futures managed to erase earlier losses with strong buying support heading into the close.  Prices were initially lower on spillover weakness in the corn pit along with seasonal selling pressure.  Also, improved weather in Europe and Russia put the wheat market on the defensive earlier in the session.  There was confirmation of damage north of Wichita from a hail storm that came through one of the best remaining wheat areas in Kansas on Sunday afternoon.  Severe storms also damaged some wheat in Oklahoma, and heavy rain coverage will continue to impact eastern Oklahoma over the next few days.  Minneapolis gained from heavy rains in the Dakotas and Minnesota that could pose further spring wheat planting delays.  Following the close, U.S. spring wheat plantings came in at 67% complete compared to the five-year average of 76%. 
 
Soybean futures posted a mixed settlement with July supported by old crop tightness.  Meal remains higher, offering underlying support to the market.  November futures continue to trail old crop due to concerns about rising global supplies and the potential for increased bean acreage given the late corn planting.  Weekly export inspections for beans were at just 3.2 million bushels, below the average trade estimate of 5.0 million bushels.  Cash traders say nearly 210,000 metric tonnes of U.S. soymeal from the new crop has been purchased by Vietnamese animal feed.  Analysts were expecting 25%-30% of the soybean crop planted in this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop report.  The figure was slightly less at 24% complete with the five-year average at 42%.
              
Lean hog futures rebounded as traders acknowledge last Friday’s break was exaggerated.  Although the PEDV pig virus was detected in Iowa, the disease is not a food safety threat and the supply side remains uncertain.  The market also garnered support from the higher pork trade late Friday and improving packer margins. The 2-day Lean Hog Index for May 17th is estimated at 93.18, up .25.
                                                    
Live cattle futures gained on fresh record highs for Choice this morning along with ideas that the market was becoming oversold.  Gains were limited as beef-demand concerns persist with expectations for larger supplies later this year.  Participants look for demand to level off following the surge in retail buying ahead of the Memorial Day weekend.  Meanwhile, the June contract is at a steep discount to recent cash cattle prices.  The historically large gap between futures and cash prices is expected to narrow which could start pressuring the cash market. 

Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.17.13
2013-05-17T03:57

Corn futures were mixed on long liquidation with active bull spreading pushing the July contract higher.    Weather remains the central focus as a week of rapid planting will come near a close.  A significant amount of progress was made over the last six days in many areas of the Midwest.  Some analysts suggest that Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report could show Iowa and Illinois plantings at 50% or better.   The North Plains will see the greatest impact from a storm system that will move into the western Corn Belt over the weekend.  This is the initial of a series of storms which will hamper plantings for the entire week.  Informa lowered their corn acreage estimate by 1.0 million acres to 96.83 million.  Their yield is anticipated at 160.9 bushels per acre compared to the USDA’s recent yield estimate of 158.0 bushels per acre.  The drop in the west and south is partly offset by an increase in the east. 
                                 
Wheat futures dipped again on technical selling pressure along with demand shifting to corn as ethanol margins improve. Corn/Wheat spreads were featured throughout the session as wheat continues to lose ground to corn.  Meanwhile, China continues to auction off old crop reserve wheat, and sold 380,000 metric tonnes of 897,000 metric tonnes offered.  Canadian planting continues to operate at a sluggish pace, with Saskatchewan 8% planted on all crops.  The five-year average is at 16%.  According to the government, 24% of the crop area has a surplus of topsoil moisture.  A new Canadian research alliance is receiving a $97 million research grant to improve the yield potential of Canadian wheat.  The alliance group will involve the National Research Council, Agriculture Canada, the Saskatchewan Government and the University of Saskatchewan.  In other news today, Informa pegged U.S. spring wheat acreage at 12.40 million acres.
                                                                                         
Soybean futures were higher on strong U.S. cash market due to good crush demand and talk out of China overnight of a possible government stimulus.  Fund buying consisted of 7,000 soybean contracts.  The USDA reported the private sale of 138,000 metric tonnes of beans to an unknown destination for the2013/14 marketing year.  In addition, 2 cargos (120,000 MT) of beans were sold to China for new crop delivery.  Informa raised their U.S. soybean acreage figure by 1.2 million acres to 78.29 million.  Most of the increase was tied to the west and south.  The yield is estimated at 43.9 bushels per acre compared to the recent USDA estimate of 44.5 bushels per acre.  The Argentine Ag Ministry has stated that the producer sales to exporters have reached 6.1 million metric tonnes as of May 8 compared to 10.4 million metric tonnes.
     
Lean hog futures slid today on commercial selling pressure and buying puts.  There were rumors circulating earlier today that the USDA would announce an outbreak of a disease in 3 hog states called PED.  According to reports, the states included Texas, Iowa and Minnesota.  So far, the USDA has confirmed PED in Iowa.  The disease which affects baby pigs is not transferable to humans, but causes a very quick death in herds that contract it.
                                            
Live cattle futures were lower on positioning ahead of the USDA’s report.  August traded sharply lower on the day while hitting new contract lows.  Some cash cattle sales transpired in Kansas, Texas and Colorado at $125 although some individual auction reports have run as high as $133.  Following the close, the Cattle-On-Feed report showed On Feed May 1st 97%; Placements during April 115%, Marketings during April 102%.   Estimated week-to-date slaughter this week is 496,000 head, 9,000 head smaller during the same period last year.  This morning wholesale prices were mixed with Choice $.19 higher at $208.96, while Select was quoted $.19 lower.
Get a free trial of MarketSense, a market day e-mail from Arlan Suderman at www.waterstreet.org.                                         

Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.16.13
2013-05-16T03:32

Corn futures sagged today with reports of good planting progress in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa.   Rain total in most of the Belt were not enough to interfere with plantings, allowing farmers an extra 24 hours to get the crop in the ground.  U.S. fertilizer producer Mosaic Company says it sees U.S. corn plantings at 95 to 96 million acres in 2013, as producers make up for lost time due to unfavorable conditions.  Average Midwest spot ethanol profitability is estimated at $.70 per bushel, or about $.25 per gallon.  This includes all fixed costs and basis, and facilities in the east continue to enjoy better margins than the far west.  By contrast, China’s ethanol industry is losing $1.20 per bushel, or -$.40 per gallon due to preferential government treatment in other sectors, and is functioning at just 40% of capacity. 
                          
Wheat futures came under pressure from improved world weather prospects across the drier parts of Australia and Russia. Fund selling consisted of 4,000 contracts.  Weekly export sales for the current marketing year were pegged at 4.6 million bushels, below 11.7 million bushels needed each week to reach the government’s projection.  Sales for the 2013/14 marketing year came in at 15.3 million bushels.  Forecasts are calling for rain today in eastern Texas and Oklahoma with the pattern extending over much of the central U.S. on Friday.  Although the U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will see scattered rain activity, extremely warm temperatures will keep evaporation rates high which will make it difficult for a net boost in soil moisture from occurring.  Kansas Agricultural statistic service estimates that more than 50% of that state’s wheat shows freeze damage with development running about 3 week’s behind normal pace. 
                                                                                      
Soybean futures advanced Thursday with historically strong cash markets driving prices higher.  Selling remains light as producers take advantage of the current planting window.  July beans found support from fears that Brazil’s Senate may not pass an amendment to government port reforms today by midnight, which will result in a work stoppage during a time when the world is seeing a short bean supplies.  Weekly export sales for the 2012/13 marketing year came in at just.6 million bushels but was slightly above .5 million bushels needed each week to stay on pace with the USDA’s estimate.  Sales for the 2013/14 marketing year came in at 12.7 million bushels.  Meal exports were fairly sizable at 83,000 metric tonnes of old crop and 109,700 metric tonnes old crop when taking tight supplies into consideration.  Informa is supposed to release their report tomorrow morning.
  
Lean hog futures rose sharply higher credited to another hike in wholesale pork prices late yesterday afternoon.  Hogs have benefited from the outlook of tighter supplies of slaughter-ready hogs in late spring and early summer.  The USDA reported the pork carcass composite value for late Wednesday up $.75 at $90.95, the highest prices since new pork reporting series began January 7th.  Meanwhile, cash prices in the eastern Corn Belt have been rising relative to those in the west.  The recovery in prices east of the Mississippi River is attributed to smaller supplies of hogs there following the extreme drought last summer.
                                            
Live cattle futures were initially higher until speculative long liquidation emerged sending prices lower.  Traders were also evening up some of their positions ahead of tomorrow’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed data.  Traders expect a big increase in April placements given improved feeding margins and cheaper feeders.  Cash cattle traded hands in Texas at $125 on a live basis, down from mostly $126-127 the previous week.  Weekly U.S. beef sales were reported at just 4,700 metric tonnes for the week ending May 9.  This compares to the 4-week average of 13,475.   This morning Choice gained $1.04 at a record high of 208.99, while Select was quoted $.48 higher at $193.23.
Get a free trial of MarketSense, a market day e-mail from Arlan Suderman at www.waterstreet.org.                                          

Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.15.13
2013-05-15T03:56

Corn futures ended easier Wednesday while planting has been progressing in NE, IA, IL, IN, MN and the Dakotas.  Some areas last night were interrupted by showers, and forecasts for Thursday and into the weekend are calling for wet weather in the Corn Belt.  Rainfall is expected to materialize by the weekend in the northern Plains and the system could to bring accumulations of up to 1.50-2.0 inches.  The EIA weekly ethanol production increased to an average of 857,000 barrels per day, up 14,000 barrels per day from last week.  No gallons were imported.  Ethanol stocks decreased to 14.4 million gallons increased as consumption exceeded production.  This is the tightest stocks figure since back in November of 2011.
                            
Wheat futures fell on light volume due to technical selling pressure with fund selling estimated at 4,000 contracts.  Losses were limited by ongoing planting delays and approaching crop insurance deadlines which could have some producers taking prevent planting payments.  The planting pace will likely slow further given forecasts for rain in the upper Midwest growing region.  Weather models indicate welcome rainfall for the western Plains by the weekend, but the heavier amounts are designated for NE rather than KS and OK.  According to reports abroad, Russian wheat is being stressed by dry conditions this month although some scattered showers are advertised.  Meanwhile, there are rumors coming out of Russia that they intend to release more wheat for export in the current marketing year which could limit U.S. sales. 
                                                                                  
Soybean futures were softer on spillover pressure from neighboring grains along with the stronger U.S. dollar.  The bean market saw very little impact from news that union workers walked off the job at three of Brazil’s main ports late Tuesday due to failed negotiations.  Analysts were expecting NOPA’s soybean crush to come in between 125 and 127 million bushels versus March’s figure of 137.08 million bushels.  NOPA put the crush at 120.113 million bushels, while soy oil stocks were pegged at 2.638 billion pounds.   The lower-than-expected crush figure was considered negative and pushed the July/November spread lower on profit taking.  This morning the government announced that China bought another 171,000 metric tonnes of soybeans for delivery during the 2013/14 marketing year. 

Lean hog futures dipped due to the firmer dollar and concerns of decreased export sales.  In the first quarter of the year, pork exports and volume declined by 15% tied to tighter import restrictions for countries such as Russia.  Cash markets were reported steady in the Midwest.  Producers are current with marketings as suggested with weekly weight data showing no change from a week ago.  The 2-day CME Lean Index ending May 13th was $91.89, up .16 from the previous session.
                                          
Live cattle futures finished in negative territory due to concerns about sluggish economic growth and the stronger dollar.  Although wholesale prices were higher today with Choice hitting a fresh high, some analysts note that record beef prices could prompt retailers to feature less expensive meats such as chicken and pork.  Cash cattle sales for the week remain undeveloped with packers bids running at $124 live in the Panhandle.  Wholesale prices were quoted higher this morning with Choice up $2.09 at $208.18, while Select was $.63 higher at $192.70.  Slaughter came in above expectations at 125,000 head. 
Get a free trial of MarketSense, a market day e-mail from Arlan Suderman at www.waterstreet.org.                                         

Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.14.14
2013-05-14T03:43

Corn futures posted a mixed settlement on profit taking while December found some support due to the slow plantings report.  Fund sold an estimated 3,000 corn contracts.  After Monday’s close, the government said that just 28% of the U.S. crop was in the ground compared to the five-year average at 65%.  This is the slowest progress made since 1980 and similar to 1993 and 1995.  Both years ended with below trend yields.  According to the U of IL, there could be an 8% yield loss for corn planted after May 10th and 15% after May 20th.  Some analysts also note that there could be a 1.5-3.0 drop in U.S. 2013 final planted acres as a result of late plantings.  Meanwhile, there were reports of good planting progress made Sunday and Monday.  However, some areas have been interrupted by rain coverage with more widespread heavier rain activity expected over the weekend in the central Corn Belt.  
                        
Wheat futures were mostly higher in a quiet day of trading as demand and fundamental news remained slow.  Fund buying consisted of an estimated 2,000 wheat contracts.  Just 29% of the winter wheat was headed versus 51% average while cool temperatures are delaying winter wheat maturity.  The crop rated 32% good/excellent versus 60% last year.  SRW conditions were unchanged with Illinois seeing an improvement.  The primary decline in the report was in the state of Washington.  The weekly crop progress report showed Spring Wheat at 43% planted compared to the 5-year average of 63%.  This week the weather in the Midwest is supposed to turn warmer and dryer over the next few days.  Then, Thursday thru Thursday of next week of the Midwest looks wet while the 11-15 day looks drier.
                                                                             
Soybean futures were mostly higher with strength tied to ongoing planting delays.  Old crop saw good gains with the May/July inverse of over $1 heading into expiration.  U.S. soybean cash basis levels remain firm amid tight physical supplies.  Funds sold an estimated 1,000 soybean contracts in today’s trade.  This afternoon’s report revealed just 6% of the crop is in the ground compared to the five-year average of 24%.  Some traders estimate a drop in double-crop soybean acres due to the lateness of the wheat crop maturity.  Analysts were expecting today’s NOPA soybean crush to range from 125 to 127 million bushels versus March’s figure of 137.08 million bushels.  Chinese crush margins have been better for both imported U.S. and South American beans, while domestic beans are running at breakeven or worse depending on when they were acquired.
                                                                                       
Lean hog futures were significantly higher with the pork product market near its highest levels since February 4th due to higher loin values this week.  In addition, the market found strength from June’s slight discount to the cash market.  The cash market in the Midwest remains mostly firm with just a few locations trading $.50 lower.  The 2-day CME Lean Index ending May 10th was $91.73, up from the previous session of 91.31.
                                         
Live cattle futures were mixed with no cash bids reported yet.  Cattle owners were asking $128 or more on a live basis.  Participants on both sides of the market are trying to get a handle on near-term demand and the direction prices will go once trading develops later in the week.  U.S. pasture conditions were rated 34% good/excellent, up from 32% last week but well below 54% for this time last year.  Wholesale prices were quoted higher this morning with Choice up $.78 at $205.91, while Select was $.41 higher at $192.24 on 75 loads. 
Get a free trial of MarketSense, a market day e-mail from Arlan Suderman at www.waterstreet.org.

 
                                         
Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.13.13
2013-05-13T04:02

Corn futures advanced on lack of planting progress in Illinois, Iowa and Indiana along with new spread highs in the expiring May contract.  Funds bought an estimated 15,000 CBOT corn contracts.  Planting progress this afternoon is expected to pick up pace due to progress on the fringes of the Corn Belt.  However, this week’s figure came in slightly less than the slowest week on this date back in May 1984 at 29%.  According to the USDA, corn plantings were at just 28% complete compared to the five-year average at 65%.  The new spread high reflects notable strength in the cash market trade, especially while ethanol plants east and west bid for corn during a time of strong margins.  Ethanol profitability is averaging $.25/gallon ($.75/bushel).
                       
Wheat futures posted modest gains on spillover support from corn and beans today.  Fund buying consisted of an estimated 3,000 wheat contracts.  On Friday the USDA left its old crop U.S. ending stocks unchanged.  For the 2013/14 crop year, the government projected 44.1 bushels per acre as the national average yield, with expected harvested acres at 46.7 million.  Winter wheat yields were reported lower for many states with South Dakota seeing the most significant change.  The state is estimated to have an average yield of just 33 bushels per acre, compared to 50 bushels per acre last year.  The weekly crop progress report showed Spring Wheat at 43% planted compared to the 5-year average of 63%.   May wheat contracts are set to expire tomorrow.  There were 15 deliveries at Toledo, and 12 in KC futures.  The KC deliveries were stopped by Dreyfus for their house account. 
                                                                          
Soybean futures rose today as bull spreading was featured throughout the session.  Fund buying was estimated at 5,000 bean contracts.  The front month was dramatically higher due to a squeeze on a May soybean delivery.  Traders were expecting the USDA to show U.S. soybean plantings at 7-10% complete as of Sunday.  This afternoon’s report revealed just 6% of the crop is in the ground compared to the five-year average of 24%.   Analysts anticipate Tuesday’s NOPA soybean crush to range from 125 to 127 million bushels versus March’s figure of 137.08 million bushels.  In an effort to help China’s domestic poultry industry after the recent string of bird flu, the country’s Finance Ministry will put 600 million Yuan toward stabilizing the industry.
                                                                                 
Lean hog futures mixed with most months finding strength from expectations for tighter hog supplies in coming weeks.  May futures were thinly traded as the month will go into expiration tomorrow.  Analysts look for tighter supplies of slaughter-ready hogs for the remainder of May throughout the Month of June because of breeding issues during last year’s extremely hot weather.  Fewer hogs could prompt some meatpackers to curb their slaughter schedules as early has this week. 
                                      
Live cattle futures were slightly higher with futures’ wide discount to cash cattle prices.  The most recent cash cattle sale was around six cents above the June cattle contract.  Some traders expect futures to rise in order to narrow the gap.  Cash cattle markets were quiet in the Plains and western Corn Belt and are likely to remain slow until midweek.  Year-to-date slaughter is running behind last year although carcass weights have been up.    Wholesale prices were quoted mixed this morning with Choice $.23 lower at $207.75, while Select was $.92 higher at $192.12, the highest since March 22nd.                                           
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.10.13
2013-05-10T03:50

Corn futures began the session weaker ahead of a key U.S. government report on Demand/Supply.  The data showed corn harvested acres the same at 89.5 million with a projected yield of 158 bushels per acre.  Although the planted acreage estimate was unchanged from the March 28 planting intentions report, the USDA noted that the yield projection was lowered based on a weather adjusted trend.  The crop is estimated near 14.14 billion bushels.  Carryout was pegged at 2.00 billion bushels compared to estimates of 1.97 billion bushels.  The projection would be the highest level for late-summer corn stockpiles since 2005.  The average U.S. 2013/14 farm corn price is $4.70 versus 6.90 this year.  The 2013/14 world ending stocks were projected at 154.63 million metric tonnes, which is 2.93 million metric tonnes above the average trade guess. 
                     
Wheat futures finished lower in response to the USDA’s bearish crop report which was released at 11:00 CDT this morning.  Additional pressure stemmed from outside markets including the stronger U.S. dollar.  The government put 2013/14 carryout at 670 million bushels compared to estimates of 630 million.  The USDA forecast domestic wheat output this year at 2.057 billion bushels, in line with trade estimates and down 9% from last year’s production.  All winter wheat production was pegged at 1.486 billion bushels.  The average U.S. 2013/14 wheat price is 6.80 versus 7.80 this year.  Global ending stocks for the 2013/14 season came in at 186.38 million tonnes, compared to trade estimates of 184.40 million and up from 2012/13 ending stocks of 180.17 million.  
                                                                       
Soybean futures fell Friday after the government report projected higher-than-expected domestic supplies in the next year.  Old crop futures gained on new crop due to firm cash markets and tight domestic supplies.  The report showed U.S. bean acres unchanged at 77.1 million acres and yield at 44.5 bushels per acre.  The 2013/14 U.S. carryout was pegged at 265 million bushels compared to estimates at 240 million. The 2013 crop estimate was estimated near 3.390 billion bushels compared to 3.015 billion last year.  World ending stocks for 2013/14 were estimated at 74.96 million tonnes versus trade estimates near 69 million tonnes.  The figure is a record high. 
                                                                             
Lean hog futures were softer on follow through pressure from yesterday’s losses.  Pork packers were quoting as much as $1.00 lower for hogs as they try to boost their razor thin to negative processing margins.  Rather than locking the lower bids, most producers will wait until next week to offer additional hogs for sale while hoping to see demand improve.  This week’s projected slaughter is at 2.08 million head, down slightly from a year ago.  Midday wholesale pork prices were up $1.30 at $90.23. 
                                    
Live cattle futures were mixed after the WASDE report this morning showed U.S. beef production at 25.190 billion pounds, up 214 million pounds from the April estimate.  The first production estimate for 2014 came in at 24.188 billion pounds; more than a billion pounds lower than year over year.  Exports were reduced by 13 million pounds, while per capita consumption increased .4 to 55.7.  Light cash cattle dealings were reported in Kanas at $127, while activity is still absent in the north.  The boxed beef data showed Choice gained $.06 while Select was $.08 higher on 121 loads. 
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.09.13
2013-05-09T04:10

Corn futures advanced on position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s monthly Supply & Demand data along with wetter extended forecast models.  Weekly export sales for the 2012/13 marketing year came in at 4.6 million bushels, below 6.7 million bushels needed each week to match the USDA’s projection.  Sales for 2013/14 marketing year were at 6.7 million bushels.  As a result of the disappointing sales, the USDA could still reduce projected export sales tomorrow morning in the WASDE report.  For Monday’s crop planting progress report, analysts are looking for the crop to be just 30-35% planted.  According to Chinese sources, planting in Heilongjiang is 15-20 days behind normal because of the weather there. 
                     
Wheat futures settled higher on technical buying interest, dryness in Australia and Ukraine, and late U.S./Canada spring plantings.  According to floor sources, funds bought an estimated 6,000 CBOT wheat contracts.  Planting delays continue to embolden buyers for Minneapolis spring wheat, while Canadian conditions remain undesirable for field work.  Weekly export sales for wheat were at 8.8 million bushels, below 10 million bushels needed each week to stay in step with the government’s projection.  Sales for the 2013/14 marketing year were pegged at 8.3 million bushels.  Meanwhile, the FAO is predicting world wheat production will reach 695 million metric tonnes this year.  The figure is up 4.3% from the previous year.
                                                                      
Soybean futures rose Thursday with the May contract supported by the lack of deliverable receipts.  Bull spreading was also featured throughout the session which provided strength for the May contract.  The push above $14 in the July contract prompted some short covering interest.  Fund buying consisted of nearly 6,000 bean contracts.  Basis levels outside delivery locations have been better than those obtained at the delivery locations.  Weekly export sales for the 2012/13 marketing year came in at 7.12 million bushels, above .9 million bushels needed each week to stay in step with the USDA’s estimate.   In addition, there was an announced sale of new crop beans to China this morning totaling 110,000 metric tonnes, the second sale in two days.  Meal sales eased last week, with 34 metric tonnes of old crop sales, and 37 metric tonnes of new crop. 
                                                                       
Lean hog futures posted a mixed settlement as traders question how long the seasonal uptrend in pork will last.  In recent weeks, hog futures enjoyed the seasonal increase in pork demand by restaurants and grocery stores ahead of Memorial Day weekend.  June hogs struggled today which signals to some traders that uptrend is soon coming to an end.  Late yesterday, the USDA’s pork carcass value rose $.52 to $87.08.  The CME Lean Hog Index as of May 7th was 89.78, up by $.98 the previous session.
                                    
Live cattle futures were firmer supported by gains in wholesale beef prices.  Limited cash sales materialized yesterday at $126 in Texas, while additional cattle sales were reported this morning in Kansas at $126.  The boxed beef data showed Choice gained $.24, while Select was quoted $.46 higher.  It is challenging for traders to gauge the level of consumer demand given the wide gap between cash and futures prices.  Industry experts note that live cattle futures could struggle until the market attracts further buying interest from managed funds.  According to the most recent report by the CTFC, managed money had about 3,000 net short positions, while producers and end users were net long by nearly 4,000 contracts. 
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.08.13
2013-05-08T04:16

Corn futures finished lower on an improved forecast and expectations that the planting pace will gain momentum.  Forecasters see a window of opportunity for rapid planting in the next 10 days.  There were zero deliveries reported versus the May contract, with the oldest long of that contract on January 11, 2012.  U.S. ethanol production dropped 1.6% to 843,000 barrels a day in the week through Friday according to the EIA.  On Friday, the USDA WASDE report is scheduled for release at 11:00 AM CST.  The average of pre-report trade estimates for U.S. old crop is running around 762 million bushels, and 125.29 million metric tonnes of world ending stocks.  Meanwhile, Chinese officials are indicating that they will increase the support price for corn in order to boost domestic production and reduce import needs.
                  
Wheat futures finished negative for Chicago with KC and Minneapolis posting slight gains on worries of crop damage from a Great Plains drought and spring freezes.  Fund selling on CBOT consisted of 2,000 wheat contracts.  Rainfall in Kansas was a limiting factor, although areas seeing the most amount of heavy damage will derive little benefit from the system.  The trade is looking for a bearish USDA crop report this Friday with expectations of a large domestic crop carryover.  Analysts anticipate the 2013/14 carryovers to run around 657 million bushels with a wide range of estimates, at 486-800 million on the new crop.  Old crop carryover should stay close to the April figure at 731 million bushels.  The average trade guess for all wheat production is 2.06 billion bushels with a range of 1.832-2.19 billion bushels.
                                                                 
Soybean futures posted a mixed settlement on tight domestic stockpiles and alleviated concerns that growers will switch more acres to beans.  This morning the USDA announced the private sale of 115,000 metric tonnes of beans were sold to China for the 2013/14 marketing year.  U.S. cash basis for soybeans are still trading at historically high levels, pointing to the tight availability of domestic stock piles.  There were zero deliveries against the May contract which also signals tight supplies.  Today, Midwest soybean basis bids hit fresh highs with bids surfacing $1.00-$1.25 a bushel over May futures.  The reduction in cash prices from May delivery to September is almost $3.00 a bushel, a sign that the market is trying to attract more stored beans from the hands of growers.  In central Illinois, cash merchants are paying $1.25 a bushel above July bean futures.  In Des Moines, Iowa merchants were quoting cash bids of $1.05 above futures.
                                                                    
Lean hog futures found support from the firming trend in the cash markets. Cash markets in the Midwest were reported steady to higher today with talk of good demand from the packer.  However, gains were limited by talk that packer margins have cooled.  Slaughter came in below trade expectations for 3 of the past 4 sessions.  Today’s slaughter is estimated at 411,000 head.  Iowa/Minnesota weights have eased to 276.8 pounds from last week’s record of high of 278 pounds.  The CME Lean Hog Index as of May 6th was 88.80, up from 87.83 the previous session.
                                    
Live cattle futures were lower again on long liquidation along with ideas that the beef market is about to peak from all-time highs posted last week.  August futures were running at an 865 discount to the cash market compared to the 5-year average near a 65 point discount.  Cash cattle were trading in the Panhandle at $126 on a live basis, down $2.00 from last week.  The boxed beef data showed Choice gained $3.26 to $204.45 while Select gained $.62 at $190.88.  The week-to-date slaughter is estimated at 247,000 head, 3,000 more than the previous week.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.07.13
2013-05-07T03:51

Corn futures put in a choppy, two-sided trade driven by better long-term forecasts versus yesterday’s disappointing crop progress report.  Many areas in the Corn Belt are nearly ready to be planted this week as weather turns drier.  However, corn plantings stand in at just 12% compared to 5% last week.  The 5-year average stands at 47% for this date, while last year producers were at 69% complete.  Just 3% of the corn was emerged compared to the 5-year average of 15%.  The National Average corn basis was $.12 Âľ under the May futures contract.  Processors in Central Illinois were paying $.40-$.50 over the July contract.  Yesterday, President Obama declared 6 Iowa counties major disaster areas after the early April storm plagued those regions.  The declaration paves the way for federal funds to support state and local funds in recovery.
               
Wheat futures were modestly firmer on spillover support from the corn pit and a pessimistic outlook for the winter wheat crop.  Kansas City wheat was slightly higher with gains limited by forecasts of beneficial rains for the southern Plains later this week.  Yesterday the USDA showed the winter wheat crop was 39% poor/very poor.  Just 20% of the crop is headed compared to 64% last year and the 5-year average of 39%.  About 74% of the hard red winter wheat crop in Texas was rated poor/very poor.  U.S. Spring wheat planted is at 23% along compared to 82% last year and the 5-year average of 50%.  The Iraqi trade Ministry reported that the country is expected to lose 25-30% of its 2013 wheat crop due to heavy flooding.  According to the ministry, losses are estimated at $200 million.
                                                             
Soybean futures rose on bull spreading, while tight cash supplies continue to firm interior basis.  Large processors such as ADM and Cargill Inc. signal that soybeans could be hard to come by until harvest in the fall.  In addition, rapid progress expected in corn plantings this week has the trade less concerned about acres switching to beans.  Monday’s planting progress report showed beans at 2% complete compared to the 5-year average of 12%.  Last year producers were 22% completed.  The largest planters included Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi.  In other news, Oil World said global soymeal supplies are expected to stay tight for the balance of the month given the sluggish new crop meal and soybean exports from South America.  The anticipated supplies from South American soymeal have been delayed and may not be available before the end of May or June. 
                                                                    
Lean hog futures posted a mixed settlement with some support stemming higher cash markets.  Cash markets traded steady to $1.00 higher this morning, but gains were partially offset by weakness in pork values late yesterday.  Also, there was talk that packers may be cutting back on kills which was a limiting factor.  Late Monday pork cutout values came in at 86.72, down $.07 from Friday.  The CME Lean Hog Index as of May 3rd was 87.83, up from 86.79.
                                   
Live cattle futures extended yesterday’s losses as traders look for a downturn in demand for grilling meats in weeks ahead.  Losses were limited by futures discount to the cash market.  Traders look for a steady to lower cash trade given the slightly higher showlist this week.  Wholesale prices saw a slight uptick today as Choice gained $.16 while Select was up $.69.  Yesterday’s slaughter was estimated at 122,000 head, up 3,000 head from last Monday.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.06.13
2013-05-06T03:47

Corn futures experienced weakness due to a drier weather outlook and expectations that corn planting will pick up this week.  Growers have continued to make limited old crop sales as they attempt to get new crop planted.  As a result, this has strengthened basis in many areas, particularly Central Illinois where processors are paying $.40-$.50 over the July contract.  Some analysts were expecting today’s USDA crop report to show Corn planting progress as little as 12% to 14% complete, while others were anticipating that it could be as much as 15-20% complete.  Corn plantings came in at just 12%.  The low planting progress this week was back in 1984 with the crop just 10% planted.
         
Wheat futures finished negative on spillover pressure from the corn pit and ideas of better weather in the 6-10 day outlook.  The CFTC Disag report in Friday revealed Managed Money reduced their net short positions in Chicago wheat by 15,091 contracts.  The 5-day forecast indicates decent rain totals across Oklahoma, Kansas and southern Nebraska. This afternoon’s weekly crop conditions report showed winter wheat at 32% good/excellent compared to 33% the previous week.  Spring wheat plantings are at 23% along compared to the 5-year average of 50%.  According to a Bloomberg survey, global ending wheat stocks for the 2013/14 crop year are seen at 186.5 million metric tonnes.  Stats Canada estimated their all wheat stocks for March 31 at 13.459 million metric tonnes compared to 14.652 million metric tonnes last year.  
                                                        
Soybean futures came under pressure as the trade shifts its attention on planting progress.  This afternoon’s planting progress report showed beans at 2% complete compared to the 5-year average of 12%.  Cargill has decided to idle an Indiana crush plant due to poor crush margins and tight supplies.  Processors have been paying up to $1.15 over the July contract to secure beans.  Weekly export inspections for beans were at 6.42 million bushels, just slightly above expectations of 6.0 million bushels.  Stats Canada estimated their canola stocks as of March 31 at 3.909 million metric tonnes compared to 5.202 last year.  The figure was below the average trade guess and helped to boost bean prices on Friday.  For Friday’s upcoming USDA report, a survey of Bloomberg analysts expect bean production to run around 3.35 billion bushels.  Soybean ending stocks worldwide are seen at 68.0 million metric tonnes.
                                                                
Lean hog futures posted losses following the noticeable decline in pork exports.  According to the USDA, volumes of pork shipped from the U.S. for the first three months of this year declined by 15% compared to 2012 during this time.  Traders also suggest today’s losses stemmed from the potential downturn in demand for grilling meats ahead.  Traders saw negative packer margins and talk that packers were scaling back on kills as reasons to believe cash would turn lower.  Nevertheless, cash hogs traded steady to $1.00 higher this morning.
                                 
Live cattle futures drifted lower Monday after wholesale prices tumbled.  The drop in wholesale prices reignited concerns that near-record beef prices could hurt retail demand.  In addition, monthly beef exports for March were reported at just 188.56 million pounds versus 194.5 million last year.  Losses were limited by futures discount to the cash market.  Tyson reported an 18% dip in EPS last quarter which was disappointing.  They attributed the drop in EPS to weather-related issues, but were optimistic going forward with sales on the retail end.  Tyson had bumped up retail beef and pork prices and has noticed a shift in consumption to more chicken.  The boxed beef data showed Choice lost $1.26 while Select was off $.72 on 79 loads.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.03.13
2013-05-03T04:02

Corn futures ended mostly lower with the exception of May corn after no delivery intentions were made.   A large storm system that extends from Wisconsin down to Louisiana is pushing its way across the U.S. with expected rainfalls totaling 2 inches in southern Illinois and 1 inch in eastern Iowa.  Most of Iowa will see a high of just 40 degrees which will cause snow to stick around longer and make it difficult to safely plant corn.  Traders expect Monday’s planting progress report to show corn plantings across the U.S. at 15-20% complete.  Informa came out with its Brazilian corn production this morning at 76.3 million metric tonnes compared to 74.6 in its previous release.  There is word that Brazil’s Agriculture Minister is working to improve trade relations with China in a visit next week.  The meeting is seen as an opportunity to lift trade restrictions on corn, beef, and pork.
          
Wheat futures settled lower on long liquidation while losses were limited by concerns about the 2013 U.S. wheat crop.   According to floor sources, funds sold an estimated 3,000 wheat contracts.  Last night parts of North and South Dakota saw temperature lows drop into the mid 20’s.  Informa estimated the 2013 All Wheat production at 1.529 billion bushels, down from 1.581 billion bushels in their last report.  HRW is seeing the largest drop with 798 million expected compared to 850 million previously thought.  However, SRW is expected to come in at 508 million bushels, down just 1 million bushels.  The HRW final tour results reflected 41.1 bushels per acre for Kansas compared to the actual figure of 41.2 bushels per acre last year.  The 5-year average is at 42.3 bushels per acre.  The tour estimate last year was calculated at 49.1 bushels per acre.
                                                         
Soybean futures were higher on the day although the May/July calendar spread pushed lower later in the session on rumors that deliveries against the May contract may be made.  During the session in early trade, the May/Nov spread hit an intra-day all time high of $2.52.  Fund buying in beans Friday totaled 5,000 contracts.  Interior basis levels remain firm due to tight supplies and light producer selling.  Many traders suggest the U.S. is close to importing soybeans and meal, but there has been no confirmation of this.  July soymeal advanced as U.S. domestic crush margins remain favorable due to strong meal basis across the country.  Informa pegged their Argentina soybean production estimate at 53 million metric tonnes, up from their previous estimate of 52 million.  The Brazilian bean crop was estimated at 82.5 million metric tonnes, down from their previous estimate of 83.25 million.
                                                         
Lean hog futures were mostly lower on ideas that the market was becoming a bit overbought.  Cash markets were quoted steady to $1.00 higher today.  Traders look for steady cash markets next week given the tightening of packer margins.  The CME Lean Hog Index as of April 30 was 85.54, up from 84.54 the previous session.  Slaughter came in below expectations at 402,000 head which could suggest sluggish demand from the packer.  For the week, pork production was estimated at 435.9 million pounds, down 2.3% from last week.
                                
Live cattle futures sagged on profit taking and signs that this week’s cash cattle dealings are done for the week.  Yesterday cash cattle unfolded with an estimated 20,000 head moving in Nebraska, while in Kansas sales totaled around 2,000 head.  Prices this week were as high as $131 live in Colorado and Nebraska, and dressed sales in those states including Iowa and Kansas were at $207.  In Nebraska a few pens sold as high as %208.  The boxed beef data showed Select lost $.37 and Choice gained $.27 with light movement of 70 total loads.  The activity has pushed the Choice/Select spread to $10.58.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.02.13
2013-05-02T03:47

Corn futures settled higher on expectations of further planting delays after forecasts called for more rain coverage across the U.S. Midwest.   In addition, old crop basis remains bullish.  There were no deliveries against May futures, and the oldest remaining long is from April 8.  Funds bought an estimated 12,000 corn contracts.  Weekly export sales for the 2012/13 marketing year for corn came in at 13.0 million bushels, above 7.6 million bushels needed each week to satisfy the USDA’s projection.  Sales for 2013/14 were at 25.8 million bushels.  Corn ethanol (d6) RINs were firmer over this past week reported near $.77 compared to $.65 the previous week.  The advance in RINs has been partially linked to sharp advanced in corn prices which could result in restricted production. 
    
Wheat futures found some strength with questions of how much production will be lost due to uncertainty regarding weather conditions.   Gains were limited by the sharply higher dollar.  Fund buying consisted of 3,000 wheat contracts.  According to trade sources, the final results from the Kansas HRW tour are showing yields at 41.1 bushels per acre compared to the 5-year average of 42.3 and last year’s figure of 42.0 bushels per acre.  Total Kansas Wheat production has been pegged at 313.1 million bushels for 2013 compared to the 5-year tour average of 341.3 million bushels.  Last year’s total was 382.2 million bushels.  Weekly export sales for the 2012/13 marketing year for wheat were pegged at 8.1 million bushels, below 9.5 million bushels needed each week to reach the government’s estimate. 
                                                     
Soybean futures ended mostly negative on a Chinese cancelations and rumors of domestic imports.  There were no deliveries reported against the May bean futures overnight.  The oldest long recorded shows March 20, 2012.  However, there were 591 soybean oil deliveries while commercials remain good stoppers.  Weekly export sales for beans were at -4.03 million bushels for the 2012/13 marketing year, below .9 million bushels needed each week to stay in step with the USDA’s forecast.  The negative number was due to cancelations which were earlier rumored to have been Chinese cancelations.  However, 2013/14 sales were pegged at 49.3 million bushels.  This morning the USDA reported the private sale of 290,000 metric tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year.  According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s soybean harvest is at 66.2% complete versus 56.2% last week. 
                                                         
Lean hog futures were generally lower on selling due to uncertainty about how long the market can sustain its seasonal upswing.  Profit taking also surfaced following yesterday’s gains.  The USDA reported Wednesday’s pork carcass value at $86.36, up $.67.  A few plants in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa may be forced to cut their slaughter schedules due to heavy wet snowfall which could interrupt transporting hogs.  According to livestock dealers, some areas received eight or more inches of heavy wet snow.  The latest projected CME two-day Index for Wednesday was up 1.00 at 85.54.    
                      
Live cattle futures were stronger again today due to beef demand with boxed beef prices pushing higher.  This prompted packers to raise bids for cash cattle with live reported at $131 in Nebraska and Colorado.  Wholesale prices for U.S. choice-grade beef were at their highest levels in nearly a decade.  Choice was $.81 higher at $200.30 while Select was quoted $1.15 higher at $190.98 on 75 loads.  The high prices are a product of the seasonal increase in demand and historically tight U.S. cattle supplies.  Some analysts note that the market will soon hit its seasonal peak.  On a dressed basis, cash cattle prices hit a new record high in Nebraska when trading at $207 while a few pens sold at $208.  
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 05.01.13
2013-05-01T04:02

Corn futures were pressured by disappointing Chinese Manufacturing figures along with poor U.S. jobs data.  There were no deliveries versus May futures last night and none were expected.  Open interest yesterday fell by another 11,560 contracts with longs eager to exit after the shorts scrambled on Monday.  Most of Europe was closed today as they celebrated Labor Day.  This morning’s EIA report was seen as friendly with ethanol production increasing by 4,000 barrels to 857,000 barrels per day.  This is the highest production level since June 29.  Despite the faster production rate, stocks dropped by 556,000 barrels to 17.038 million barrels.  This should help support margins going forward.  The national average cash price for is running around $6.75 with processors and terminals running well above that.

Wheat futures slipped today on some profit taking and weak outside markets.  Funds sold an estimated 2,000 wheat contracts.  There were 460 delivery notices reported against May Chicago wheat with some commercial interest although there was no major stopper.  Weather forecasts for May are showing below normal temperatures extending from the central U.S. to the Gulf.  The HRW tour’s first day of yield checks through parts of Kansas reflected a yield of 43.8 bushels per acre.  Last year the yield was estimated at 53.4 while the 5-year average stands at 44.2.  Meanwhile, the Kansas Wheat tour has moved into Western Kansas where yields are dramatically lower from yesterday.  Higher-end yields are coming in around the higher 20’s bushels per acre while the lower-end yields are running near 0 bushels per acre.
                                                     
Soybean futures were sharply lower with the trade talking about potential Chinese cancellations around the corner.  Fund selling consisted of 7,000 soybean contracts.  There were no deliveries reported against May soybeans or meal futures, and none were anticipated.  However, soybean oil saw 1,010 lots put out, and major stoppers included the Dreyfus house account and a NewEdge customer.  Worries about slower economic growth exerted additional pressure on grains with China’s PMI report for April coming in at 50.6, down .3 from March.  The figure was also below trade expectations.  Meanwhile, basis remains strong as processors continue to scramble for beans.  New crop prices have seen pressure due to the extremely slow planting pace in corn.
                                                        
Lean hog futures extended yesterday’s gains on optimism surrounding demand.  Hog futures continue to benefit from the rise in U.S. wholesale prices.  The USDA reported wholesale pork prices at midday up $1.43 at $87.91.  Cash hog bids were reported $.50 to $1.00 higher with packers looking for additional loads to meet this week’s slaughter schedules. Better demand for grilling cuts contributed to the improved buying interest among packers.  The CME Index closed up 1.08 at 84.54.
                           
Live cattle futures benefited from stronger boxed beef prices and weakness in the grain complex.  The lack of new deliveries contributed to the bullish sentiment.  The boxed beef data showed Choice advanced $2.51 at $198.90 while Select was $1.86 higher at $189.90 on sales of 107 loads.  Packers’ bids are running $125 to $1.27, while feedlot operators are looking for $2-4 higher above that.  Last week’s sales were at $128.  Light cash cattle sales materialized this afternoon in Kansas and Texas at $128 on a live basis on 5,000 head and 1,000 head respectively.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 04.30.13
2013-04-30T03:58

Corn futures pushed lower after the move higher overnight filled the gap that was left following the March WASDE.  Preliminary open interest data for Monday indicated massive short covering ahead of the month-end.  Analysts say that the February ethanol data was in line with expectations while the rally in RIN’s helped boost consumption, thereby drawing down stocks.  Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed estimated plantings at just 5%, just 1% higher than the previous week.  Iowa had only 2% of its corn planted and is expecting 5-6 inches of snow.  In addition, some areas of the Plains or WCB could see up to 20 inches although accumulations are doubtful since soil temperatures are warmer.  Meanwhile, Illinois and Indiana have just 1% of their corn crop planted. 

Wheat futures extended yesterday’s gains with KC July contract triggering a series of buy stops mid-morning.  Weather forecasts turned colder for Western Kansas into the Panhandle later this week.  Monday’s winter wheat conditions report showed the crop slipped by 2% on the week to 33% good/excellent.  Winter wheat in the poor/very poor category increased by 2%.  The government showed 12% of intended spring wheat was planted compared to 7% the previous week.  The Hard Wheat Quality Tour of Kansas is in progress and will provide a detailed look at the level of freeze damage that has transpired over the past month.  According to trade sources, the first stops along the crop tour in North Central Kansas are coming in around 40 to 50 bushels per acre.  Most expect the yields to deteriorate as the tour moves west.  South Korea secured 48,900 metric tonnes of U.S. origin for July shipment.  The cargoes included soft white and dark northern spring wheat.
                                               
Soybean futures ended easier on spillover pressure from the corn pit.  Yesterday’s rally was short covering as total open interest dropped by 2,671 contracts.  Today is first notice day for May soybean futures with no delivery intentions announced.  This is a sign that supplies remain snug.  Although the National Crop Progress report showed no soybean acreage planted, there were several individual states that showed some progress.  Arkansas revealed that 10% of soybeans were planted with 2% emerged.  However, the 5-year average for plantings there is 22% with 11% emergence.  Louisiana is sitting at 26% planted versus the 5-year average of 42%.  Agritrend said yesterday that Argentina’s soybean plantings are likely to increase in 2013/14 to 49.4 million acres, up from 47.2 million acres.  The expected increase is tied to lower planting costs along with ongoing government export curbs.
                                                  
Lean hog futures advanced due to ongoing strength in pork values and news of higher belly prices.  Estimated daily slaughter was pegged at 418,000 head putting the week-to-date at 833,000 head.  This compares to 836,000 last week.  Talk of snow in Iowa was viewed as mixed as cold weather is seen as negative while snow could temporarily impair movement.  The CME Index on 04/29 closed up 1.04 at 83.46.
                          
Live cattle futures posted a mixed settlement with some support stemming from strong wholesale prices.  The April live contract expired today.  The deferred live cattle contracts saw some mild pressure which weighed on feeders.  The midday boxed beef data showed Choice $.17 higher while Select was $1.49 higher on 72 loads.  Earlier today, the Choice/Select spread was at $7.25.  With warmer weather in the works, grilling demand may improve enough to prompt some retail featuring.  Cash bids were reported at midday at $127 live in Texas and $202 dressed in Nebraska.  Traders look for cash sales to unfold towards the end of the week.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 04.29.13
2013-04-29T03:55

Corn futures rallied sharply higher due to weekend rains and a wetter weather outlook than previously thought on Friday.  Corn prices rose to a one-month high as weather models showed potential rainfall in coming days in major corn growing states such as Iowa and Illinois.  The softer dollar also helped support the move higher in corn.  With first delivery day tomorrow, the May contract is without trade limits effective today.  Price limits for other outright corn contracts Tuesday will be $.60.  Trade estimates for this afternoon’s corn planting progress were running between 8-12%.  The report following the close reflected estimated plantings at just 5%, below the 5-year average of 31%.  The EU commission put its Euro area 2013 corn crop estimate at 65.3 million metric tonnes, unchanged from its March estimate. 

Wheat futures advanced amid freeze damage concerns for HRW and planting delay issues in Spring wheat.  Lingering cold temperatures could return and threaten mature wheat across the delta and southeast the first week of May.  This afternoon’s Winter Wheat Conditions report showed the crop at 33% good/excellent, down 2% from the previous week.  Spring Wheat plantings were pegged at 12%, below the 5-year average of 37%.  The EU commission put its Euro area 2013 soft wheat crop estimate at 129.7 million metric tonnes, off from their March estimate.  However, they did boost their 2013 Euro area durum wheat crop size to 8.8 million metric tonnes from their March report.  The Midwest wheat tour got underway today and will last through Thursday.  Most of the tour is taking place in Kansas along with the surrounding states.  Analysts expect to see significant freeze damage over the past few weeks.
                                         
Soybean futures got off to a slow start before climbing higher on better-than-expected inspection numbers and spillover support from the corn pit.  The new crop November contract was unable to keep pace with gains on the May, especially since more soybean acreage is likely as more corn plantings get delayed.  Chinese markets were closed Monday in observance of a public holiday there.  Weekly inspections for wheat came in at 8.9 million bushels, up 4.8 million bushels from the previous week.  The trade was looking for 6.0 million bushels.  Trade sources note that Argentina is struggling with low protein content in their soybeans and soybean meal.  There is growing concern that there could be ongoing issues meeting specs on products that have been sold. 
                                         
Lean hog futures turned lower on talk that the market was becoming overbought after closing higher for 4 straight sessions.  Long liquidation was noted during the session with concerns of a colder and wetter Midwest forecast.  The cash market could see some additional strength this week due to improved packer margins.  This morning, higher margins enticed packers to pay steady to $2.00 higher for cash markets.
                           
Live cattle futures were mostly lower pressured by weakness in Feeders due to the limit-up move in the corn pit.  Losses were limited by the higher cash trade Friday and lack of new deliveries against the April contract this morning.  Strong gains in the stock market and the drop in the U.S. dollar provided some support.  The midday boxed beef data showed Choice $1.41 higher at $194.30 and Select was $.77 higher at $185.20.  The boost is attributed to consumer retail demand picking up.  Earlier today, the Choice/Select spread was at $9.10.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 04.26.13
2013-04-26T04:21

Corn futures ended negative after failing to attract follow through buying interest on yesterday’s small rally.  According to floor sources, funds sold an estimated 6,000 corn contracts.  Traders will monitor weather forecasts over the next week for signs of more planting delays.  The trade estimates for Monday’s corn planting progress are running between 8-12%.  According to weather models, Northern Illinois and Iowa will see some rain coverage in the next 5-days.  The 6-10 day outlook is calling for above average chance of moisture in the eastern and northern Corn Belt.  However, both Missouri and Nebraska show a below chance of precipitation during that period. 
                   
Wheat futures were pressured by light profit taking and position squaring ahead of the weekend.  Fund selling amounted to 3,000 wheat contracts.  Yesterday IGC estimated World 2013/14 wheat production to increase 4% while use is expected to increase by just 1%.  This implies a modest increase in end stocks.  Meanwhile, the University of Nebraska western Nebraska extension crop specialist said the state’s western winter wheat crop was running 7-10 days behind normal development.  Since the wheat was in the tillering stage, it managed better with recent below-freezing temperatures than if it had been on schedule in the joint development stage.  The Wheat Quality Tour is scheduled to kick off next week which could generate some short covering. 
                                        
Soybean futures were stronger again today as buying interest pushed the July/November spread to $1.78 ½ at one point, which is its highest since early March.  The seven-month high stands at $1.83 while the high last August was just above $2.10.  Some bullish traders are optimistic that the spread will hit fresh highs.  The combination of good old-crop demand and tight cash sales is expected to keep near-term prices higher.  Funds bought an estimated 5,000 soybean contracts.  The May options expired today.  The CME has announced force majeure for loading on the Illinois River because of flooding.  Therefore, longs choosing to load out of receipts may not be able to get them right away.
                                       
Lean hog futures ended firmer again today on technical buying interest and signs of improving demand.  Stronger wholesale prices this week have pointed to a seasonal uptrend in demand.  As temperatures improve in coming weeks, consumers are likely to buy more meats for outdoor grilling.  Today U.S. cash hog prices rose while packers became more active in seeking supplies.  The CME Lean Index came in at 81.42, up from .59 from the previous session.
                     
Live cattle futures dipped on profit taking along with the stock market which was slightly lower.  U.S. growth in the first quarter was at 2.5%, which was below estimates and driven by consumer spending.  Late yesterday, some cash cattle sales unfolded in Iowa at $128 on a live basis, while sales took place at $203 on a dressed basis.  Between 20,000 and 25,000 head traded in Nebraska at mostly $129 live with dressed sales taking place at $204.  The midday boxed beef data showed Choice $.27 higher at $191.81 and Select was $.04 lower at $184.46 on 84 loads.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 04.25.13
2013-04-25T03:20

Corn futures finished higher on news this morning that China bought 300,000 metric tonnes of U.S. new crop corn. There was an additional sale of 240,000 metric tonnes to an unknown destination.  Additional support stemmed from lingering rains in the 7-day forecast and positive outside markets.  Weekly export sales for corn came in at 12.4 million bushels for the2012/13 marketing year, above 8 million bushels needed each week to match the USDA’s forecast.  The International Grains Council estimated 2013/14 global corn production at 939 million metric tonnes, up from 927 million in their previous estimate.  However, the IGC did mention that delayed corn planting along with attractive bean prices would help determine planting decisions in the U.S. 
                
Wheat futures ended higher due to the firmer corn market along with frost damage and a shrinking crop.  Freeze damage being evaluated in the Panhandle and Plains after temperatures dropped into the teens.  According to the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service Agronomist, losses were significant there.  Meanwhile, the IGC reduced their world wheat output estimate by 3 million metric tonnes to 680 million metric tonnes.  The figure compares to 655 million metric tonnes which was produced in 2012/13.  The Kansas Wheat Council will start their hard wheat quality tour Monday, April 29th which will run through May 2nd.  The tour begins from Manhattan and will follow 6 pre-determined routes with the final destination at the KCBT to issue the state’s final wheat crop yield.
                                      
Soybean futures were stronger with some bull spread activity taking place during the session.  Tight stocks have kept basis firm which further aided the front months.  Weekly export numbers for beans were at -7.58 million bushels for the 2012/13 marketing year, below .2 million bushels needed to reach the USDA’s forecast.  China is linked to the negative old crop soybean sales since they cancelled 281,000 metric tonnes.  However, sales for the 2013/14 marketing year came in at 23.1 million bushels.  Today the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegged Argentina’s soybean harvest at 56.2% complete compared to last week’s estimate of 38.6%.  That puts harvest near 31.81 million metric tonnes so far.  May options will expire on Friday, followed by First Notice day next Tuesday April 30th. 
                                   
Lean hog futures ended higher on favorable weekend forecasts and strong packer profit margins.  The market rose to the highest level since April 5th while triggering some buy stops above yesterday’s highs.  Midwest cash hogs were reported $1.00 higher as packers enjoy healthy margins.  Weekly export sales came under the average trade guess at just 12,200 tonnes.  The CME Lean Index dipped for the 7th consecutive session coming in at 80.68, down from 80.88 the previous session.
                     
Live cattle futures gained due to higher boxed beef prices yesterday and again today.  Feeder cattle also ended higher with gains limited by the rally in the corn pit.  The boxed beef data showed Choice gained $.21 while Select was $.29 higher.  Beef export sales were pegged at 15,854 metric tonnes versus 16,809 the previous week.  Although no live cattle sales have developed, traders expect the cash market to improve on the week.  Regional packers have paid $203 dressed for cattle in Nebraska, up $1.00 from last week.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 04.24.13
2013-04-24T03:47

Corn futures ended higher with fund buying estimated at 4,000 corn contracts.   The trade was looking for a slight increase in weekly ethanol production after last week’s 2.6% decline.  Continued positive margins have helped the industry.  The EIA figures released this morning reflected strong ethanol production with 583,000 barrels per day produced each day last week.  This is up 21,000 from the previous week and above the 4-week average of 824,500.  However, stocks increased by 85,000 barrels to 17.692 million barrels.  Meanwhile, POET has resumed production at the Macon, MO plant after being shut down since February 1st.  While it was shut down, there were many upgrades made including the installation of corn oil extraction equipment. 
               
Wheat futures posted slight losses on spillover pressure from outside markets.  Losses were limited with forecasts indicating cold temperatures as western Kansas wheat deals with the impact of the storm.  Stats Canada estimated 2013/14 durum wheat acreage intentions at 5.1 million acres versus trade estimates of 4.6 million.  Total wheat acreage was projected at 26.7 million acres compared to expectations of 24.4 million acres.  Given the wet spring and snow on the ground, analysts are skeptical whether that acreage level can be achieved.  Ukraine is allowing up to an additional 200,000 metric tonnes to be exported after lifting its wheat export restriction.  For tomorrow’s weekly wheat sales, analysts’ estimates are running between 500,000 and 800,000 metric tonnes.
                                 
Soybean futures were pressured after its inability to hold above yesterday’s lows.   Traders are still focusing on the potential for more bean acres due to extremely wet planting conditions.  According to floor sources, funds sold an estimated 5,000 soybean contracts.  The USDA announced the private sale of 4.26 million bushels of beans to an unknown destination.  In recent days China purchased over 20 million bushels of new crop U.S. beans as they look to rebuild reserves into the fall.  The spread between interior cash prices and the Board of Trade continues to widen, with cash bids running between $1.00 to $1.10 over the July contract.  That puts the delivery price near $14.50. 
                                 
Lean hog futures closed firmer with spot contract reaching an eight-month high on signs of improving demand.  Traders expect the rise in hog prices to follow through into the early or middle part of May.  Although some participants said they look for a smaller-than-normal seasonal decline in hog supplies in coming weeks, the tightening of supplies could force packers to compete more aggressively for hogs.  The USDA reported wholesale pork prices dipped $.67 at $84.34.  The 2-day CME Lean Hog Index for Monday was down .21 at 80.88.
                     
Live cattle futures rallied Wednesday on optimism surrounding beef demand.  Feeder cattle also extended yesterday’s gains.  Although the cold and wet spring has curbed beef demand, forecasts point to warmer temperatures across the interior U.S.  Cash cattle sales are still waiting to unfold while cattle in Texas and Kansas are being offered at $1.28.  Market participants said cash trades may not occur until Friday.  The boxed beef data showed Choice lost $.11 at $191.30 while Select gained $1.24 at $185.02. 
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 04.23.13
2013-04-23T03:36

Corn futures extended yesterday’s losses due to the poor PMI data out of China overnight along with an improving spring planting window.  Monday’s weekly crop conditions report showed corn at 4% planted versus the 5-year average of 16%.  Last year at this time plantings were at 26% complete.  Illinois and Iowa have just 1% finished, while Iowa had 0% planted as of Sunday.  The 5-day forecast calling for very little moisture across the western Corn Belt which should provide planting opportunities.  Ethanol margins still remain healthy, allowing for aggressive basis bids by plants, especially from the Gulf to Decatur.  According to reports, flooding along the Mississippi River has caused the sinking of 11 barges that have to be floated in order to clear the channel. 
              
Wheat futures saw modest pressure heading into the close as favorable moisture in the East weighed on prices.  However, there is the potential for some freeze damage for HRW areas in Kansas and the Dakotas tonight with temperatures dropping into the lower 20’s.  Tomorrow, Stats Canada will release its forecast for 2013 planted acreage.  The trade expects a .6 million acre gain which would put the total at 24.4 million acres.  Yesterday’s weekly crop conditions report showed Winter Wheat conditions at 35% good/excellent compared to 36% the previous week. Spring Wheat plantings are 7% complete compare to the 5-year average of 24%.
                                  
Soybean futures were mostly lower with firm, record high domestic U.S. bean basis supporting nearby beans and meal.  Since old crop domestic supplies are expected to stay tight, sellers are avoiding staying in the May contract.  Crush margins are still healthy, with aggressive basis offers seen across the western Corn Belt.  The USDA announced the sale of 392,000 metric tonnes of beans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year.  This is in addition to 174,000 metric tonnes that was booked yesterday as China takes advantage of discounted new crop futures prices.  Meanwhile, the trade is keeping an eye on the weather forecast given that producers may switch a part of the 97 million corn acres over to soybeans.
                                
Lean hog futures finished higher following the rise in wholesale pork prices, which is an indicator that retailers are beginning to stock up on spring grilling meats.  Yesterday’s pork carcass value was up $1.45 at $84.54, the highest since March 4th.  Although the Cold Storage report reflected pork stocks at 648.8 million pounds, up 2.4% from February, demand appears to be picking up.  Pork demand tends to benefit from its sharp discount to beef prices this time of year.  The 2-day CME Lean Hog Index for Monday was down .21 at 80.88.
                     
Live cattle futures ended higher as feeder cattle rose due to the sharp drop in corn prices.  In addition, the weather forecast points to above normal temperatures for the central U.S., which is favorable for beef demand during grilling season.  Traders are waiting for this week’s cash cattle markets to unfold with no bids reported as of midday.  Cattle feeders in Kansas and Texas are asking $128 on a live basis.  The boxed beef data showed Choice gained $.80 to $191.58 while Select rose $.82 to $184.49 on 103 loads.
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Water Street Solutions Daily Report 04.22.13
2013-04-22T03:56

Corn futures ended lower on an improved weather forecast for spring planting in days ahead.   Some forecasts point to warmer and drier weekend weather although cold, wet and damp conditions for much of the Corn Belt has the trade concerned about reduced corn production.  Grain experts say that problems with the toxic residue of mold that attacked the 2012 drought-hit U.S. corn crop may worsen this summer and fall as Midwest farmers blend off tainted supplies held in storage.  The weekly crop conditions report showed corn at 4% planted versus the 5-year average of 16%.  Friday’s Cattle-on-Feed report was viewed as a little friendly to the corn market given the larger-than-expected numbers on feed. 
            
Wheat futures sagged on fund selling which consisted of 3,000 wheat contracts. Wheat continues to deal with freeze damage in the Plains and flooding issues in the Dakotas.  More potential freeze damage is likely Tuesday into Wednesday for the Panhandle of Texas.  Weekly export inspections for wheat were pegged at 24.84 million bushels.  The figure was above expectations of 21.5 million bushels.  For this afternoon’s crop progress report, traders were looking for a further deterioration in the HRW ratings.  Egypt’s agriculture minister on Sunday said the country’s wheat crop will be close to 10 million tonnes this season as harvest gets underway.  The figure is more than the supply minister’s forecast of 9.5 million tonnes.  This afternoon’s weekly crop conditions report showed Winter Wheat conditions at 35% good/excellent compared to 36% the previous week. Spring Wheat plantings are 7% complete compare to the 5-year average of 24%.
                                  
Soybean futures extended losses on spillover pressure from the corn pit and slow demand.  Fund selling in beans was estimated at 7,000 contracts.  There is concern about a delivery squeeze against the May futures as May options expire on Friday.  Late last week, the U.S. national average cash price was reported at $14.21 ÂĽ.  U.S. cash bean basis levels have eased, particularly at terminals used for export shipments.  Basis bids were pressured by the combination of slower export demand and logistic problems for barge shipments to export locations at the Louisiana Gulf due to high water levels on the Mississippi River.    This morning the USDA reported the private sale of 174,000 metric tonnes of U.S. beans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year.  According to Argentine sources, harvest is running around 48% complete there.
                                  
Lean hog futures settled lower on weaker outside markets and spillover pressure from the cattle pit. Traders remain concerned about slowing demand from 3 of the country’s top five export markets.  China, Japan and Korea have slowed their spending on U.S. pork this year.  Cash hog prices near midday were reported mostly steady in light volume trading.  According to livestock dealers, a plant in the western Corn Belt experienced mechanical issues to start the week and may lose part of their shift of slaughter.  That could reduce Monday’s slaughter to 410,000 to 415,000 head.  The 2-day CME Lean Hog Index for Friday was at 81.09, down .23.
                    
Live cattle futures ended weaker with some activity tied to Friday’s bearish Cattle-on-Feed report.  The data showed March placements of 105.97% of a year ago which was higher than the average trade guess.  Although they left April 1 numbers at 95% of a year ago, the figure was not down as much as previously thought.  Losses were limited with the 6-10 day forecast calling for above normal temperatures for the central part of the U.S.  Futures discount to the cash market also offered underlying support.  The cash cattle market was quiet following last week’s sales at $126.  The midday boxed beef quotes showed Choice up $.74 while Select lost $.31.
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