Tag Archives: corn

Regardless whether you’re a Republican, Democrat, Libertarian or a card-carrying Mugwump, I think we can all agree that President Donald Trump is a man not afraid to change his mind. Of course, that’s not to say that everyone would characterize this unique flexibility in the same way.

What strikes some as being open-minded, hits others as being empty-headed. What speaks to some as strategic deal making, warns others of random cluelessness. What some admire as bold examples of leadership, others fear as reckless and counterproductive displays of power.

Furthermore, many members of the citizen jury flip their verdicts from morning tweet to morning tweet. Our wonderful country can often be a tough bar to manage with the head bouncer facing intractable problems on a daily basis. Reassessments can be good or bad, absolutely necessary or dangerous second-guessing.

No less a thinker than Ralph Waldo Emerson once said: “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.” Whatever else fans and critics might think of the commander-in-chief’s gray matter, it is clearly not haunted by ghosts of uniformity and steadfastness.

But while I’m glad President Trump is not demonically possessed by an irrational need to strictly “stay the course” for its own sake, I am increasingly troubled by the reckless way he likes to shoot from the hip in matters of global trade.

The seeds of mistrust now being sown among many of our major trading partners makes me wonder if the White House truly understands the evolutionary nature of the international marketplace, a networking process that slowly improves over time as “non-zero” relationships (i.e., net import and export sums that benefit both sides of a trade) proliferate and compound.

But if this criticism is too harsh on the Trump administration, I feel more confident in saying that the president and his entire motley crew (given the extremely short truce in the trade war with China declared just last week, it seems clear that not every team member is rowing in the same direction) could benefit from a season or two of demanding fieldwork and farm management.

As far as I’m concerned, the great and abiding ethos of agricultural marketing has always been summarized by the pledge “my word is my bond.” Many may think this sounds quaint and unrealistic. But I still think it’s the fundamental nail that guarantees 95% or more of the country’s farm business.

That’s not to say that no one in the farming and ranching community ever bothers with lawyers and contracts. Of course, successful producers follow prudent business practices. And that’s not to say that all those who work the soil or sort cattle automatically turn into unimpeachable Eagle Scouts. Bad apples fall from rural and urban orchards alike.

Nevertheless, I would have no qualms testifying before Congress (or perhaps more to the point, chatting over drinks at Mar-a-Lago) about agriculture’s extraordinarily high commitment to honor and trust in matters of commerce. Maybe I’m hopelessly naive. But I’ve seen too many unhedged farmers dutifully deliver contracted corn dollars under the spot market and too many unhedged feedlot managers accept delivery on fall calves tens of dollars above the spot market to think otherwise.

Although waves of consolidation and concentration have certainly changed some of the dynamics of agricultural business over the decades, an amazing network of trust and cooperation still exists in the country. This network’s taproot is comprised of realities such as isolation, low population, piecemeal infrastructure, and scattered markets.

The magic of this necessary trust at first fostered the rising levels of trade required to feed and energize the continental United States. This same quality of trust was then increasingly married to hundreds of other trusting business partners all around the world to create global trade worth trillions and trillions of dollars.

Unfortunately, this long-tested alchemy of trust and trade, a proven elixir responsible for the creation of untold wealth through U.S. agriculture, as well as the nation as a whole, is being threatened by a president who believes that trade wars are good and easily won.

Can’t you just hear our trading partners say something like “Anyone so casually bellicose is not to be trusted.” And that’s exactly the point. Trust and trade go together like love and marriage. Once you become less than trustworthy, your sex appeal as a trading partner quickly goes south.

During less than 18 months in office, President Trump has reneged (or threatened to renege) on U.S. international pledges too numerous to count. Some of these decisions may have been well-reasoned. But the way the president and his team blow hot and cold (sometimes on the same day), is it any wonder that U.S. creditability seems to be approaching an all-time low.

Maybe if Trump had been raised in the wilds of western Nebraska or Kansas instead of cushy New York, he would have learned one of the woodshed’s most valuable lessons: “Say what you mean, and mean what you say.”

WASHINGTON (DTN) — One of the first looks at the 2018-19 crop production projects the U.S. corn crop at 14.04 billion bushels with an average yield of 174 bushels per acre.

The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) offers the first forecasts for crop production and ending stocks for the 2018-19 marketing year.

Soybean production is projected at 4.28 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.5 bushels an acre.

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

Production for 2018-19 is pegged at 14.04 billion bushels with ending stocks forecast at 1.682 billion bushels, down 500 million bushels from the 2017-18 crop.

Old-crop ending stocks for corn are unchanged from the April forecast at 2.18 billion bushels.

Brazil’s corn crop was pegged at 87 million metric tons, down 5 mmt from April’s projection.

SOYBEANS

USDA projects the 2018-19 soybean crop at 4.28 billion bushels, down 112 million bushels from the 2017-18 crop year. Soybean new-crop ending stocks are pegged at 415 million bushels.

Old-crop ending stocks are projected at 530 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month’s projection.

USDA bumped up Brazil’s soybean production to 117 million metric tons, up 2 mmt from the April report. Argentina’s production was dropped again to 39 mmt, down 1 mmt from April.

WHEAT

All winter wheat is projected at 1.19 billion bushels, down 6% from a year ago. The winter wheat yield is projected at 48.1 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from last year.

Hard red winter wheat is projected at 647 million bushels, slightly above the pre-report average estimate. Hard red winter wheat production is forecast to be down 14% from last year’s crop. Soft red winter wheat is projected at 315 million bushels, up 8% from a year ago. White winter wheat is projected at 229 million bushels.

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Editor’s Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT Thursday as he looks at USDA’s “initial” estimates for the 2018-2019 crops as well as changes to old-crop supply and demand tables. To register, visit https://dtn.webex.com/….

May Average High Low April 2016-17
Corn 2,182 2,178 2,208 2,132 2,182 2,293
Soybeans 530 541 565 490 550 302
Grain Sorghum 29 30 32 28 29 33
Wheat 1,070 1,067 1,090 941 1,064 1,181
2018-19 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels)
May Average High Low Outlook
Corn 1,682 1,631 1,907 1,467 2,272
Soybeans 415 549 715 336 460
Wheat 955 923 1,005 780 931
2018-19 U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels)
May Average High Low Outlook 2017
Corn 14,040 14,091 14,604 13,921 14,390 14,604
Soybeans 4,280 4,311 4,430 4,248 4,320 4,392
2018-19 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels)
May Average High Low Outlook 2017-18
All Wheat 1,821 1,757 1,832 1,612 1,839 1,741
All Winter Wheat 1,192 1,180 1,304 1,062 NA 1,269
HRW 647 644 797 540 NA 750
SRW 315 306 330 218 NA 292
White 229 230 260 201 NA 227
2017-18 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
May Avg. High Low April 2016-17
Corn 194.85 195.20 198.00 192.20 197.78 230.90
Soybeans 92.16 90.00 91.00 88.50 90.80 96.72
Wheat 270.46 271.30 273.40 268.50 271.22 254.60
2018-19 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
May Avg. High Low
Corn 159.15 182.00 192.50 148.70
Soybeans 86.70 91.10 97.00 75.50
Wheat 264.33 267.70 278.70 260.00
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2017-2018
May Avg. High Low April 2016-17
Corn
Brazil corn 87.0 88.2 91.0 83.9 92.0 98.5
Argentina corn 33.0 32.1 33.0 31.0 33.0 41.0
Soybeans
Brazil soybeans 117.0 116.6 119.0 115.0 115.0 114.1
Argentina soybeans 39.0 38.6 40.0 37.0 40.0 57.8
2017-18 2016-17
Wheat May Apr May Apr
European Union 151.58 151.60 145.37 145.25
FSU – 12 142.20 142.77 130.09 130.47

OMAHA (DTN) — Corn planting progress jumped 12 percentage points again last week and narrowed the gap between this year’s progress and the five-year average pace, according to the USDA National Ag Statistics Service weekly Crop Progress report released Monday.

 

Listen to the report here: http://post.futurimedia.com/krvnam/playlist/futures-one-usda-crop-progress-report-5-7-4108.html

NASS estimated that 39% of corn was planted as of Sunday, May 6, up from 17% the previous week. Last week’s planting progress lagged the five-year average pace by only 5 percentage points compared to the previous week when planting lagged 10 percentage points behind average. Compared to five-year average paces, Minnesota was the most delayed at 9% versus a five-year average of 44% corn planted for this time of year, noted DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.

Corn emergence, at 8% on Sunday, was running 6 percentage points behind last year’s 14% and the five-year average pace of 14%.

Meanwhile, soybean planting moved ahead of the average pace. Fifteen percent of the crop was planted as of Sunday, according to NASS, 2 percentage points ahead of the average of 13%.

Winter wheat was 33% headed, behind last year’s 49% and also behind the average of 41%. Winter wheat condition improved slightly last week to 34% good to excellent, up 1 percentage point from the previous week’s rating of 33% good to excellent.

Winter wheat’s current condition rating is the lowest since 2014. The same is true for DTN’s winter wheat condition index at 51, Hultman said.

Spring wheat was 30% planted as of Sunday, well behind the average pace of 51%. Only 4% of the crop was emerged, also well behind the five-year average of 22%.

“Spring wheat planting is fine in the Pacific Northwest and made better progress in the Northern Plains last week,” Hultman said. “Montana is the furthest behind at 24% versus the five-year average of 54%.”

Cotton was 20% planted as of Sunday, compared to 12% last week, 20% last year and a 20% average. Rice was 68% planted, compared to 55% last week, 76% last year and 69% on average. Forty-four percent of the crop was emerged, compared to 29% last week, 64% last year and a 50% average.

Sorghum was 29% planted as of Sunday, compared to 26% last week, 30% last year and a 29% average.

Barley was 42% planted, behind the average pace 59%. Thirteen percent of the crop was emerged as of Sunday, compared to an average of 30%. Oats were 56% planted, compared to 39% last week, 77% last year and a 74% average. Thirty-four percent of oats were emerged, compared to 29% last week, 57% last year and a 54% average.

National Crop Progress Summary
This Last Last 5-Year
Week Week Year Avg.
Corn Planted 39 17 45 44
Corn Emerged 8 3 14 14
Soybeans Planted 15 5 13 13
Cotton Planted 20 12 20 20
Sorghum Planted 29 26 30 29
Spring Wheat Planted 30 10 51 51
Spring Wheat Emerged 4 NA 19 22
Winter Wheat Headed 33 19 49 41
Barley Planted 42 26 50 59
Barley Emerged 13 7 24 30
Oats Planted 56 39 77 74
Oats Emerged 34 29 57 54
Rice Planted 68 55 76 69
Rice Emerged 44 29 64 50

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National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
This Week Last Week Last Year
VP P F G E VP P F G E VP P F G E
Winter Wheat 16 21 29 27 7 16 21 30 26 7 4 11 32 43 10

 

Find the full report at: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048