China-Phase One Deal. Details are pretty quiet. Cattle was the market that took this all in as there has been a lot of people that have been short. Holiday trade is in place. Beans rallied but didn’t have the full fireworks many had hoped for. Corn turning positive.
Lower grains in the trade. Big trade factors today include the FEDS Statement, Brexit & China tariff deadline. What will happen between now & Sunday with China & how will the markets
continue to watch. Brazilian weather for the most part is pretty good. Argentina has some heat, but showers are possible. Livestock ASF, getting reports of an uptick in breakouts in China-not official but being talked about on the ground.
USMCA. Higher grain numbers…did the Chinese numbers get faded out? WASDE report. Chinese production numbers corn & wheat were higher. Final USDA Crop Progress report for 2019. Dollar traded lower. Livestock…USDA cut in exports for beef & pork. Chinese hog heard is starting to rebuild. Cattle markets & weights.
USMCA Chatter. Spitting of weather across the Midwest. Soybeans sharply higher-funds are short. Trade deal talks of last week makes some worried that a deal with China might not be done. Extended crop reports…crop report out tomorrow-can we expect any surprises? Stats Canada Vomitoxin issues, test weight issues on corn. South America weather. Price action on the livestock shows we haven’t learned a lot on the trade issues.
Winter doldrums effecting the markets, trade war has no real incentives from China. Crop size & the USDA reports. Basis & its pressure on the elevators. South American Crop.
Grain elevators face significant challenges in the year ahead as they buy basis on corn, soybeans and wheat at the highest levels seen in years, according to a new report.
CoBank reports basis for the three major grains is significantly tighter across the country from strong end-user bids, limited pipeline supplies, and lack of farmer selling amid an uncertain fall harvest. A CoBank researcher says, “grain elevators are being compelled to offer farmers a range of incentives to sell bushels,” including lower rates on storage, free delayed pricing and free grain drying, all cutting into elevator margins.
Grain quality issues resulting from high moisture at harvest and frost damage on immature crops will also raise management costs for elevators, potentially resulting in greater losses to shrinkage and spoilage. A propane supply shortage in some regions is also driving up the cost of drying grain.
However, grain elevators also have an opportunity to improve margins in an otherwise stressful year, as basis will likely soften as more bushels come to market as harvest operations conclude.
We welcome Matt Bennett of AgMarket.Net to the Fontanelle Final Bell. Matt is from Windsor, IL
Covering basis & cash…worries about giving up ownership at year’s end. Looking into 2020 & how to market going into the new year. Crop progress report. Ethanol Markets…corn isn’t there so how you move & keep the bottom line. Will South America put pressure on us in 2020. Effects on the dollar for our grain trade.
Another solid week on the cash cattle. Could there be a correction headed our way? Any holiday pressure that might work into. How are cattle weights. Holcomb KS plant to start back up this week. How do you think the market react? Funds are long. Some red flags popping up. Hogs…way to cheap but China is playing a role in that. 10% of corn crop still in the field. Basis in corn market. China on again off again. December 15th…will we see changes before then? Mixed grain markets.
Markets closed early on Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday. This year’s crop outcome-what will be harvested is about there-this could move the markets higher as reality sets in that all the crop won’t be out before 2020. How will this change the basis? Cash will win in the end. South American production-any issues heading into December. December 15th deadline looming with China-will they just continue to buy what they need? Corn exports saw some improvements this past week. Getting a final spike trade in the dairy industry. Still seeing some Chinese purchases for milk powder. Weeks snowstorms and upcoming weekend weather be of concern to the feeder cattle market?
Lower close headed into the holiday. Winter weather slows harvest once again & what are the implications. South American weather & crop update. Driest soybean in the past 4 decades but the crops look great. Trade talks, USMCA-8 days left on the schedule. If there is a will there is a way. China talks. Strong cash basis for corn & beans-some post-harvest feels. 124 million bushels of corn in NE…a lot more left as you head north. Exports tighten in Brazil. USDA put out a notice for export sales reporting of livestock. ASF.