Tag Archives: Crop Progress

Following frigid temps over the weekend the Monday crop progress report presented by NASS was eagerly anticipated. Specifically corn and soybean planting. Along with corn and soybean emergence.

To not keep readers in suspense the latest crop progress report shows across the nation 67% of the corn crop planted. That is well ahead of the 5 year average of 56%. 24% of the national corn crop has emerged. That is 2% ahead of the five year average.  In the Corn Husker state 79% of the corn crop is planted, 19% ahead of the five year average. 30% of Nebraska’s corn crop has emerged nearly double the five year average of 18%. Kansas has 61% of it’s corn crop planted. Just 3% ahead of the 5 year average for Kansas. In contrast to other states just 29% of the Kansas corn crop has emerged. 3% behind the five year average. Iowa takes the top spot for corn planting with 91% of the corn crop planted. 25% ahead of the five year average. Over a third of the already planted crop has emerged in Iowa or 33%. Well ahead of the five year average emergence rate of 20%. While there is not a quality rating yet on the corn crop this past weekends freeze could very well caused damage to the crop in the northern part of the corn belt.

From corn to soybeans 38% of the nations soybean crop has been planted. 15% ahead of the five year average. 7% of the soybean crop has already emerged. That is just 3% ahead of the five year average. In Nebraska 54% of the soybean crop is planted. Making it 31% ahead of the five year average.6% of the Nebraska soybean crop has emerged. Nearly in line with it’s five year average of 5%. Kansas likewise is well ahead in soybean planting with 23% of the crop in the ground. Compared to the five year average of 11%. In Kansas 6% of the soybeans have emerged. That puts Kansas 4% ahead of its’ five year average for soybean emergence at 2%. Again Iowa is at the front of the pack for planting soybeans at already 71% complete. That is 47% ahead of the five year average. Even with that much of the crop already in the ground only 6% has emerged, 5% ahead of the five year average.

Winter wheat has also kept traders and analysts guessing. Last week there was an uptick in wheat quality as heads were just starting to emerge in the Southern US. This week 44% of the winter wheat crop has headed out. That is below the five year average of 50%. Nebraska has only 1% of the crop starting to put on heads. Which may be okay given the recent cold snap. Still Nebraska should be closer to 8% headed out according to the five year average. 39% of the Kansas winter wheat crop has headed out. Nearly 20% behind the five year average of 56%. Oklahoma may be a good gauge for how sluggish the winter wheat crop is maturing for this time of year. Typically 90% of the winter wheat in Oklahoma has headed out by now. This year only 82% has headed out.

As stated above last week winter wheat quality improved last week. The improvement was short lived. Going into the second week in May the national winter wheat quality dropped 2% to 53% good to excellent. Nebraska remained unchanged week to week at 67% good to excellent. Kansas dropped 4% to 38% good to excellent. Kansas also nearly topped the double digits in very poor winter wheat at 7%. Colorado’s winter wheat is currently one of the poorest crops in the country with a rating of 35% good to excellent, with the highest very poor rating at 19%.

Dry conditions are in South West Kansas are starting to take their toll on the range. This week only 54% of Kansas pasture is considered good to excellent. In Nebraska 77% of the pasture is considered good to excellent.

Moisture conditions continue to dwindle for the Southern plains, but seemed to increase slightly in the Northern plains. Nebraska topsoil is rated at 77% adequate to surplus, up 9% from last week. With subsoil rated at 84% adequate to surplus, up 1%. Kansas top soil moisture dropped 5% from last week to 56% adequate to surplus this week. Kansas topsoil moisture also broke into the double digits of very short topsoil moisture at 11% very short. Kansas subsoil moisture was rated at 69% adequate to surplus, down 3% from last week. New Mexico still has the driest soil with a top soil rating of 31% very short and a subsoil rating of 30% very short. Oregon is a nearby second in short subsoil moisture with a rating of 22% very short.

You can see the whole crop progress report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/2227n944k/9s161s44t/prog2020.pdf

Clay Patton recaps the crop progress report here:

The third week of USDA NASS Crop Progress reports is out and shows corn and soybean planting slowly getting started. Winter wheat condition dropped nominally following last week’s cold snap. Soil moisture is plentiful across the northern plains, but starts to get thin the further south you go.

Nationally corn planting was considered 7% complete vs. the five year average at 9%. Nebraska corn planting was rated at 2% complete vs. it’s 5 year average of 5%. Kansas corn planting fell even further behind at 13% complete 7% lower than it’s 5 year average.  This is the second week for corn planting numbers.

This week gave us the first glimpse at soybean planting across the country. Nationally 2% of the crop is in the ground. That’s ahead of the 5 year average at 1%. Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas have yet to put an official soybean seed into the ground.

Sorghum planting is rolling right along keeping pace with the five year average at 19% planted. Nebraska is just getting started at 1% planted.

Farmers, traders, and analysts were keen to see where the winter wheat condition fell on Monday following last week’s cold blast. Nationally the winter wheat rating dropped 5% to 57% good to excellent. Nebraska winter wheat was rated at 69% good to excellent compared to 77% good to excellent last week. Kansas dropped 4% to 46% good to excellent. North Carolina took the top spot for the best rated wheat corp at 77% good to excellent. Washington comes in to a close second at 72% good to excellent. South Dakota went from number one last week to number three this week with a winter wheat rating of 70% good to excellent.

Winter wheat heading out is slightly behind the 5 year average at 14% headed out. Kansas and Nebraska have 0% of the crop heading out currently.

Soil moisture in the Northern Plains is holding fairly well, but starts to drop quickly when you head South. Nebraska’s top soil moisture is rated at 92% adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture in Nebraska is rated at 92% adequate to surplus. Kansas topsoil moisture is rated at 70% adequate to surplus with 5% now in the very short category. Subsoil moisture is rated similar in Kansas at 76% adequate to surplus.

See the entire report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/ng452348v/pg15c017h/prog1720.pdf

It’s the second crop progress report of 2020 and the first one to show the early corn planting progress across the US. As expected Nebraska has yet to put a recorded seed in the ground. This is right in line with the 5 year average which is at 1%. Kansas has a little bit of a start to corn planting at 6% compared to the five year average of 10%. Texas is by far the furthest along at 63% planted 10% ahead of the five year average. The cold snap that is impacting the plains could impact some of the more northern planted corn if temperatures continue to cool to below freezing at night.

Speaking of the cold temperatures traders are keeping a close eye on wheat conditions. Given that the data for this weeks report was collected last week it likely doesn’t take into account the cold temps that hit late this weekend. Sunday into Monday night Amarillo Texas saw a low of 28 degrees. This is critical as wheat in much of Texas, Oklahoma,  and Kansas are at the development stages like joint, boot and even a few heads emerging. Nationally NASS rated the wheat crop at 62% good to excellent equal with the rating a week ago and 2% higher than a year ago. Nebraska’s wheat crop dropped 2% from lasts week to 75% good to excellent. Kansas improved 1% to 50% good to excellent. South Dakota was able to hold onto it’s number one seat in the country for winter wheat with a rating of 81% good to excellent. That was a 2% drop from last week. Washington state closed it’s gap with South Dakota though to 80% good to excellent.

Winter wheat heading is pretty limited at only 6% nationally. Most of that is in Texas is at 35% vs it’s 5 year average of 29%. Kansas and Nebraska have yet to see their first wheat head of the season.

Sorghum planting is rolling along with NASS pegging the national level at 18% complete just 1% ahead of the 5 year average. Texas is again the lead state with 60% of it’s crop planted 10% ahead of they five year average.

Nationally 32% of the oat crop has been planted down 4% from the 5 year average. Nebraska has planted 33% of it’s oat crop down 10% from the five year average. South Dakota is also off to a sluggish start with just 5% of the oat crop planted. Down 17% from the 5 year average. Oat emergence nationally is rated at 24% in line with the 5 year average. Nebraska has seen 4% emergence 4% less than the 5 year average. South Dakota has yet to see emergence down 3% from it’s five year average.

Moisture condition is still looking fairly solid in the plains states. Nebraska’s top soil is rated at 91% adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture is rated at 92% adequate to surplus. Kansas topsoil moisture is rated at 75% adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture is rated at 80% adequate to surplus.

Overall traders may be a little more bearish given the strong wheat conditions, but they know it will take a week to realize the possible freeze damage. Corn planting is getting started, but it’s not a record setting pace so that may help to create some doubt about big corn acres in the US. Going against that though there is a lot of time ahead for planting. For that reason the report may be seen as largely neutral in the short term market trend.

See the full report from NASS here:

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/r207v7335/p5548b554/prog1620.pdf

Clay Patton breaks down the report here: