Tag Archives: Crop Progress

As expected in the October 11 crop progress report, harvest is racing ahead with dry weather across much of the country. The dry though is hindering emergence of winter wheat and quickly depleting topsoil and subsoil moisture.

Row crops have essentially hit the final stages of maturity with corn maturity reaching a national rating of 94%, 7% ahead of the five year average. Soybean dropping leaves is now rated 93% nationwide, 3% ahead of the five year average.

As for harvest national corn harvest jumped from 25% complete last week to 41% complete this week. That is 9% ahead of the five year average. In the state by state break down Nebraska has harvested 34% of the state’s corn and Kansas has harvested 63% of the states corn. Both jumped 10+% week to week and are well ahead of the five year average. Big I-states are quickly approaching the halfway mark on corn harvest with Illinois at 45%, Indiana 34%, and Iowa 42% corn harvested. Soybean harvest nationwide is 61% complete, 19% ahead of the five year average and up 23% from last week. Nebraska has harvested 82% of the state’s soybean crop. That more than doubles the five year average of 39% and almost quadruples year ago harvest levels which were just 24%. Kansas soybean harvest is 40% complete. That perfectly doubles the five year average. Big I-states soybean harvest continues to roll on with Illinois 56%, Indiana 52% and Iowa 78% complete. Finally sorghum harvest is keeping just ahead of the five year harvest with 49% of the national harvest complete. Nebraska has harvested 31% of the states sorghum. That is 8% ahead of the five year average.

Crop conditions deteriorated on the national scale this week with key states seeing a decent drop. Nationally corn is rated 61% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. Nebraska corn increased 2% week to week to 63% good to excellent. Kansas corn is unchanged week to week at 54% good to excellent. Iowa corn dropped 1% to 44% good to excellent. Illinois corn though saw an 8% drop to 68% good to excellent. The national soybean condition dropped 1% as well to 63% good to excellent. Nebraska soybeans were unchanged week to week at 63% good to excellent. Kansas soybeans increased 3% to 56% good to excellent. Iowa soybeans were unchanged week to week at 49% good to excellent. Illinois soybeans fell 9% to 66% good to excellent. Nationally sorghum dropped 1% to 50% good to excellent. Nebraska sorghum improved 8% to 68% good to excellent.

Winter wheat planting could possibly be finished in the next two weeks with the current pace being  set. Nationally 68% of the winter wheat crop is planted, 7% ahead of the five year average and up 16% from last week. In the state by state break down Colorado has the most winter wheat planted at 94%. Followed by Nebraska at 89%. South Dakota at 88% and Kansas was further away at 74% planted.

Dry conditions are slowing Nebraska winter wheat emergence, but nationwide 41% of the crop has emerged. That is 6% ahead of the five year average. Kansas has 50% of the winter wheat crop emerged, up 18% from the five year average. Nebraska has 60% of the winter wheat crop emerged, down 8% from the five year average.

Pasture and range conditions continue to drop week to week. Nebraska range dropped 2% to 36% good to excellent. Kansas pasture dropped 6% yo 32% good to excellent. Wyoming has some of the poorest range in the Midwest with only 1% being rated good and 0% excellent. Wyoming has 70% of the pasture and range rated poor to very poor.

Topsoil moisture in Kansas has taken large drops the last couple of weeks. Dropping 10% to 28% adequate to surplus this week. That is 23% drop in the last two weeks. Nebraska topsoil dropped 6% this week to 27% adequate to surplus. Dropping 13% over the last two weeks. Subsoil moisture in Kansas dropped 8% to 39% adequate to surplus. Nebraska subsoil dropped 4% to 34% adequate to surplus.

You can view the full report here:

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/hd76sq359/pg15c454g/prog4220.pdf

  • Chance for more rain in South America…really not a make or break
  • WASDE report out on Friday
  • Crop Progress report
  • Export sales holding strong
  • Ethanol has some support taking place
  • Dollar trade & grains
  • Cash cattle is hanging in there
  • Lack of momentum in the feeder cattle
  • Seeing a lot of cattle coming off grass
  • Hogs keep pushing to the upside

 

Persistent and increasing dry conditions, along with a brisk pace setting up for fall harvest are the key points for the first crop progress report of October.

Row crop harvest continues on with 25% of the national corn harvest complete. In the state by state breakdown 21% of Nebraskan corn is harvested, 44% of Kansas corn is harvested and 25% of Iowa corn is harvested. With the exception of Kansas all of these were ahead of the five year average. Soybean harvest is now 38% complete across the country. That is a full 10% ahead of the five year average and 26% ahead of where soybean harvest was one year ago. In the state break down 20% of Kansas soybeans are harvested, 55% of Nebraska and Iowa soybeans are harvested. Like corn soybean harvest is running well ahead of the five year average for most states. Finally for sorghum harvest is 38% complete across the country. That is even with the five year average. Kansas has harvested 14% of the sorghum crop, Colorado has harvested 18% and Nebraska has harvested 17%.

Corn and soybean condition is actually holding and improving in the early fall. Nationally corn condition improved 1% to 62% good to excellent. Nebraska corn dropped 2% to 61% good to excellent. Kansas corn dropped 1% to 54% good to excellent. Iowa corn after dropping for weeks following the derecho wind event improved 3% to 45% good to excellent. Illinois corn remains unchanged for another week at 73% good to excellent. Nationwide the soybean crop remained at 64% good to excellent. Nebraska soybeans improved 2% to 63% good to excellent. Kansas soybeans improved 3% to 53% good to excellent. Iowa soybeans improved 2% to 49% good to excellent. Illinois soybeans improved 3% to 75% good to excellent. Finally sorghum condition nationwide remained unchanged 51% good to excellent. Nebraska sorghum is rated 60% good to excellent.

Dry conditions are premium for a quick harvest, but not helping the wheat that is going in the ground. Nationwide winter wheat planting crossed the halfway mark at 52% complete. That is 5% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska falls just behind Colorado (86%) for the most winter wheat already planted at 80%.  That is actually 2% behind the five year average. Kansas wheat planting is rated 56% complete. 15% ahead of the five year average.

The dry conditions are also rough for winter wheat trying to emerge, but nationwide 24% of the winter wheat has emerged. That is actually 3% ahead of the five year average. 33% of the Nebraska winter wheat has emerged, 16% behind the five year average. Kansas has seen 29% of it’s winter wheat emerge, 10% ahead of the five year average.

Topsoil and subsoil moisture saw some of the biggest drops in the report this week. Nebraska topsoil moisture dropped 7% to a rating of 33% adequate to surplus. Kansas topsoil moisture dropped 13% to 38% adequate and 0% surplus. Nebraska subsoil moisture dropped 2% to 40% adequate to surplus. Kansas subsoil dropped 10% to 47% adequate to surplus.

Visit the full report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/gx41n7114/rr172n08t/prog4120.pdf

Clay Patton recaps the report here:

The last crop progress report for September shows a brisk row crop harvest starting to set up. Along with a steady increase in winter wheat drilling and emergence. The one thing that stands out somewhat is a slight increase in pasture and range condition while soil moisture continues to decrease.

At the top of the report is the corn crop. 75% of the national crop has reached full maturity, keeping a nice 10% lead to the five year average. Nebraska corn has reached 80% maturity, 15% ahead of the five year average and 15% increase from last week. Kansas corn has reached 84% maturity. Just 3% ahead of the five year average.

15% of the US corn crop is out of the field and in the bin as harvest progresses 7% week to week. Nebraska corn is 14% harvested. That is up 4% from the five year average. Kansas has harvested 29% of their corn crop. That is actually 6% behind the five year average, but is 5% ahead of where corn harvest was a year ago. Iowa has harvested 12% of their corn. That more than doubles the five year average for Iowa at 5%.

Nationwide the corn condition remains unchanged week to week at 61% good to excellent. Nebraska corn dropped 1% to 63% good to excellent. Kansas corn actually increased 1% to 55% good to excellent. Illinois and Iowa corn remained unchanged from last week at 73% and 42% good to excellent respectively.

Now to the soybean crop, where we start with soybeans dropping leaves. 74% of the of the nations soybean crop has dropped leaves. That is 5% ahead of the five year average, but 25% ahead of where soybean dropping leaves were a year ago. Largely due to getting planted earlier this year. 92% of Nebraska soybeans have dropped their leaves tying them with Louisiana for the most leaves dropped. Kansas soybeans have dropped 68% of their leaves.   Both are well ahead of their five year average.

With leaves dropping rapidly soybean harvest is underway increasing 14% from last week to 20% harvested this week. That is 5% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska has harvested 29% of their soybeans. 16% ahead of the five year average. Kansas doubled their five year average for soybean harvest at 10%.

While corn condition remained unchanged soybean condition nationwide improved 1% to 64% good to excellent. Nebraska soybeans dropped 5% to 61% good to excellent. Kansas soybeans offset Nebraska improving 5% to 50% good to excellent. Iowa soybeans decreased 1% to 47% good to excellent. Illinois soybeans improved 1% to 72% good to excellent.

Sugar beet harvest is rolling along with 21% of the crop out of the ground. That is 4% ahead of the five year average and 6% ahead of where it was a year ago. Nebraska doesn’t have enough acres of sugar beets to make the national crop progress report.

Sorghum harvest is chugging along with 31% of the national crop harvested. That is 2% behind the five year average. Nebraska has harvested 7% of the sorghum crop. That is also 2% behind the five year average. Texas has the most sorghum harvested with 85% of the crop in the bin.

Sorghum condition nationwide is rated 51% good to excellent, unchanged from last week. Nebraska sorghum is rated 58% good to. That adds another 8% to it’s recent decline in condition.

While some are in combines with harvest others are in tractors putting in the 2021 winter wheat crop. 35% of the winter wheat crop is planted across the country. That is 2% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska has planted 60% of it’s winter wheat acres, actually placing it 6% behind the five year average. Kansas has planted 35% of the states winter wheat acres. A full 10% ahead of the five year average.

Winter wheat is also starting to emerge with 10% of the crop emerged across the country. Nebraska winter wheat is suffering from dry conditions with only 15% of the crop emerged. 12% behind five year average. Kansas winter wheat is 10% emerged, 3% ahead of the five year average.

The somewhat surprise in the report comes with the last three segments. Typically when pasture and range conditions improve that means soil moisture improves, but that’s not quite the case this week. Nebraska pasture and range improved 1% to 41% good to excellent. Kansas pasture and range improved 2% to 39% good to excellent.

Meanwhile topsoil moisture in Nebraska dropped 8% to 40% adequate to surplus and 20% very short. Nebraska subsoil moisture dropped 7% to 55% adequate to surplus. Kansas topsoil moisture dropped 12% to 51% adequate to surplus and 12% very short. Kansas subsoil moisture dropped 2% to 42% adequate to surplus.

You can see the full report here:

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/jm215d05v/0z709k99c/prog4020.pdf

Clay Patton recaps the full report here:

The mid September crop progress report from NASS shows a substantial jump in moisture ratings from last week’s cool rain event. There is also a notable increase in pasture and range conditions due to the moisture. Aside from that the corn and soybean crop remain relatively unchanged and still well ahead of schedule when compared to the 5 year averages in most categories.

Starting at the top of the report which is now corn in the dent stage where 89% of the country has reached. That is 7% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska has reached 94% dent stage, Kansas has reached 91% and Iowa corn has reached 90% dent stage. All of those well ahead of their respective five year averages.

Corn maturity is also well ahead nationwide at 41%. The five year average is 32%. Iowa and Nebraska almost double their corn maturity five year averages at 48% & 49% respectively. Kansas on the other hand actually fell 1 % behind it’s five year average for corn maturity to 49% mature.

With that much of the corn crop already mature harvest is getting underway in several states. As an aggregate the national corn harvest is considered 5% complete. Right on track with the five year average. Texas of course is the furthest along with corn harvest at 67% complete. Nebraska has harvested 4% of the state’s corn crop that is 3% ahead of the five year average. Kansas though is again behind in corn harvesting with only 8% of the crop picked, 3% behind the five year average.

As the case has been for the last several week’s corn condition in the country continues to decline. Nationwide the corn crop is rated 60% good to excellent. Down 1% from last week. Nebraska and Iowa also dropped 1% to 61% and 42% good to excellent. Kansas corn increased 1% to 54% good to excellent. Illinois not to be outdone by Kansas increased 2% in the corn condition to 72% good to excellent.

Now to the soybean crop where 37% of the nations crop has dropped leaves. That is 6% ahead of the five year average. As for Nebraska 61% of the soybean crop has dropped leaves. That is perfectly 20% ahead of Iowa who has dropped leaves on 41% of the soybean crop. Either way both states are double digits ahead of their five year averages. Kansas soybeans dropping leaves is now at 32% complete. That is ahead of the five year average of 19%.

Soybean condition like corn dropped this week across the country to 63% good to excellent. Down 2% from last week. Nebraska and Iowa soybeans though bucked the trend and increased 1% apiece to 64% and 48% good to excellent. Kansas soybeans remained unchanged on the week at 51% good to excellent. Illinois though outdid all these states again with their soybeans improving 3% to 71% good to excellent.

Poor mans corn or one of the hottest commodities currently for China is sorghum. 39% of the US sorghum crop has reached maturity. That is even with the five year average. In Nebraska sorghum maturity is 9% ahead of the five year average at 26%.

Sorghum condition seems to have more elasticity than corn or soybeans. Nationwide the sorghum crop is rated 52% good to excellent, up 3% from last week. Nebraska though saw a 14% increase in it’s sorghum condition rating to 71% good to excellent.

Last week’s rain helped to bring the pasture and range condition back around in Nebraska. Nebraska pasture and range improved from 25% good to excellent to 41% good to excellent this week. Kansas pasture and range remained unchanged week to week at 41% good to excellent.  Looking around the country West Virginia actually did nearly the opposite of Nebraska with their pasture and range condition falling 11% week to week at 67% good to excellent.

Topsoil and subsoil moisture both seem to benefit from last week’s moisture as well. Nebraska topsoil moisture improved 17% to 54% adequate to surplus. Kansas topsoil moisture improved 19% to 63% adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture in Nebraska is now rated 47% adequate to surplus. An increase of 14% from last week. Kansas subsoil moisture improved 8% from last week to 60% adequate to surplus.

You can see the full report from NASS here:

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/qr46rp789/2r36vm941/prog3820.pdf

Clay Patton breaks down the full report here: