- Weather that moved across the Midwest
- USDA WASDE on Wednesday
- Positioning with the report
- ProFarmer Crop Tour
- Reaction to the weekly crop progress report
- Other currencies vs. the U.S. dollar
- Turnaround Tuesday for the cattle
- Cash cattle will continue to move higher in the days ahead
- Hogs turned lower on a Tuesday
- Weekly Crop Progress Report
- Weekly Exports
- China…will buys be cancelled
- Wheat traded lower
- Center part of Iowa hit hard be weather
- USDA Report later this week
- Cattle/hogs how has back log caught up
- Feeder cattle cash leveled off
- More bullish on cattle then in the past couple of weeks
- Cattle coming around
- Could be less cattle this fall then compared to previous years
- August 5, 2019 $107.80 not far off from where we are today
- Weeks…not months to getting caught up.
- Cash will grind higher the next couple of weeks
- Packers are willing to take on inventory.
- COVID & retail trade & exports are amazing.
- Hogs on the other hand struggle. Another gut punch to the trade
- Pork product not doing well, which makes the cash market struggle
- Export hogs are good, just need to get the short term to catch
- Grains-we will get another round of crop rating.
- We need to shift from supply to demand.
- Massive exports to China
- DC Court of appeals decision Dakota Access Pipeline-removing risk for farmers
- Higher crop ratings…some ratings the highest in 10 years
- Some export business for wheat out of Kansas City
- Hogs see triple digit losses…roller coaster in general for the livestock
- Break in product prices.
- Cash for cattle sparce
- Safety for workers
- Fear factor continues to reign
- Is corn stuck in a range or can we test contract lows
- Beans had some resistance nearing $9
- Long term weather
- Cash cattle coming in steady
- Consumer demand moving forward
- How has boxed beef been affected?
- Kids going back to school…will we see the surge in buying
- Are the cattle current? Social media dumpster fire
- The market complex as a whole do you even want to look at tweets
- Weather & maps causing a lot of talk with drought concern
- China demand
- Cattle having some nice moves
- Hogs are starting to breakout
- What do we do now…moving since the latest rally
- JBS employees walk off the job on Friday
- Decent cash cattle sales last week
- More optimism on the cattle
- First time in 8 weeks cash is higher than formulated
- Boxed beef could see some slipping again this week
- Exports not great this time of year anyways for cattle but good for hogs
- Deferred cattle are undervalued
- Hogs-weights have been coming down on the hogs.
- Rained more than many had expected
- Weather is taking center stage for corn & beans
Kyle Bumsted, Allendale Inc, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell from a dirt road near Ericson Nebraska. The market discussion centers around livestock. Heat is not only taking it’s toll on the row crops, but it also impacting cattle. This could help to decrease carcass weights. Which have been on the rise since the pandemic caused a backlog of fed cattle. Heat also discourages grilling though. As Bumsted says in the program, “Not many people want to stand in 100+ degree weather and grill a steak.” That creates the question of, where will demand fall going through the rest of summer? Bumsted believes that there will be plenty of meat coming to the market and this may put pressure back on the futures.
Bumsted has also been closely watching spreads and seasonal trends in the livestock markets. His research shows that feeders have a tendency to trend higher though the end of July into August. This happens to parallel when many large video auctions are also occurring.
Grains are not left out of the conversation. In the second half of the Fontanelle Final Bell, Bumsted looks at the technical and weather pattern driving the grain trade.
You can catch the full episode uninterrupted here:
- Weather Weather and Weather
- Holiday trade
- Tuesday report…where do we go from here?
- Psychology of the producer
- Fats & feeders had a solid Thursday trade
- Hog trade
The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association, the National Farmers Union, along with 11 other groups sent a letter to the Senate Ag Committee requesting a hearing on livestock mandatory price reporting reauthorization.
The Livestock Mandatory Reporting Rule, first established in 1999, mandates price reporting for cattle, boxed beef, swine, and lamb. It’s reauthorized every five years, with the current program expiring on September 30 of this year. The 13 groups say it represents an opportunity to make meaningful change to the program to increase transparency and true price discovery.
According to a 2019 Congressional Research Service report, a common mistake among industry stakeholders is “the low volume of negotiated purchases and a parallel trend toward increased formula purchases or other marketing arrangements.
Other concerns include confidentiality and a lack of clarity on how transactions are categorized in reports.” USCA and the other groups strongly urge the Senate Ag Committee to examine all available solutions to the current market factors depressing livestock prices and the increasing consolidation facing the U.S. cattle industry.
They say the industry is running out of time to work towards a positive reauthorization of the program. USCA says the livestock industry requires “bold leadership to realign the marketplace with its fundamentals, and that starts with modernizing the Livestock Mandatory Reporting Program.”