USDA expects farmers to harvest a record 15.3 billion bushels (bb) of corn this fall, with a national average yield of 181.8 bushels per acre (bpa), which is also a record, according to its first Crop Production report of the season.
Soybean production is estimated at 4.42 bb with a record national average yield of 53.3 bpa.
According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Wednesday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, bearish for soybeans. Meanwhile, the world ending stocks estimates were neutral-to-bullish for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for increased production offset by lower imports, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report. Imports are lowered 10 million bushels this month to 130 million on the larger HRS supplies. Estimated food use for 2019/20 is lowered fractionally to 962 million bushels, based on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. Food use for the 2020/21 market year is lowered 4 million bushels to 960 million as food consumed away from home is expected to remain lower than last year due to the impact of COVID-19. Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million on lower production for several key competitors, most notably the EU. With offsetting supply changes and increased use, ending stocks are lowered 17 million bushels to 925 million. If realized, these will be the lowest wheat ending stocks in 6 years. However, the season-average farm price is decreased $0.10 per bushel to $4.50 on lower U.S. corn prices and reduced wheat price expectations for the remainder of the market year.
Foreign 2020/21 wheat production is lowered 3.7 million tons led by a 4.0-million-ton reduction for the EU, and 1.0-million-ton reductions each for Kazakhstan and Turkey. These changes are partially offset by a 1.5-million-ton production increase for Russia and a 1.1-million-ton increase for Brazil. The production changes are based on updated harvest results and government estimates.
Global beginning stocks are raised 3.8 million tons, reflecting several mostly offsetting changes as well as a 3.5 million ton increase for the EU, which is based on multi-year revisions to both use and stocks. Foreign consumption is lowered 1.3 million tons, led by a 1.0- million-ton reduction for EU feed and residual use based on the smaller crop. Global exports are lowered fractionally with several offsetting changes including a 1.5-million-ton cut for the EU, and a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan, both on reduced production. These are offset by a 1.5-million-ton export increase for Russia, based on increased supplies, and a 0.7-million-ton increase for the United States. With global use down more than supplies, world ending stocks are revised 2.0-million-tons higher to a record 316.8 million tons.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast to have yields above a year ago, with record-high yields expected for Minnesota and South Dakota. Feed and residual use is raised based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Exports are higher reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending WASDE-603-2 stocks are raised 108 million bushels to 2.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 25 cents to $3.10 per bushel.
Sorghum production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with the yield 9.1 bushels per acre above last month’s historical median yield. Sorghum exports are raised reflecting an increase in the expected amount of shipments to China.
This month’s 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting reductions for Romania and France that are partially offset by increases for several countries including Poland, Italy, and Hungary. Ukraine corn production is forecast higher, largely reflecting higher expected area. Other notable corn production changes include projected increases for Mozambique and Malawi, with reductions for Canada and Thailand. Barley production is lowered for the EU, Kazakhstan, Argentina, and Ukraine.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include corn export increases for the United States, Ukraine, and Burma. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Canada, and Thailand, but reduced for India. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States and Argentina, with higher imports forecast for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are slightly lower relative to last month, reflecting an increase for Indonesia that is more than offset by declines for Canada and India.
RICE: The outlook for U.S. rice in 2020/21 this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic and residual use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced as lower production is only partially offset by increased beginning stocks and imports. The initial surveybased production forecast for the 2020/21 crop year reduced production from the previous forecast by 2.6 million cwt to 218.1 million, all on lower yields. The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,600 pounds per acre, down 89 pounds from the prior forecast but up from last year’s 7,471 pounds. Long-grain production is forecast at 159.1 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 59.0 million. Projected all rice imports are raised 1.4 million cwt to 36.0 million as the robust import pace seen in 2019/20 marketing year is expected to moderate only slightly in 2020/21. Imports for 2019/20 are forecast at a record 36.7 million cwt as they are also raised this month on continued large Asian shipments. All rice exports for 2020/21 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 97.0 million with all of the reduction for longgrain on continued South American competition in Western Hemisphere markets. Projected ending stocks are raised to 44.3 million cwt, up 0.5 million from last month and 44 percent higher than last year. The 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at $12.70 per cwt, compared to last year’s $13.10.
The 2020/21 global outlook is for smaller supplies, lower consumption and trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are lowered 2.6 million tons to 681.7 million, primarily on reduced production forecasts for China, Thailand, and Vietnam. China’s production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 147.0 million on record rainfall in the Yangtze River Valley during June and July causing severe flooding and reducing harvested area. Production for Thailand and Vietnam is reduced on decreased irrigation availability with low reservoir and river levels. Despite these reductions, 2020/21 world production remains record-high at 500.0 million tons. Global consumption is reduced by 1.9 million tons to 496.5 million, still a record, primarily on reductions for China, Brazil, and Nigeria. World trade is decreased 0.6 million tons to 44.3 million tons, mainly on export reductions for Thailand and China but remains well above last year’s 41.5 million. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 185.2 million, still a record, with China and India accounting for 63 and 21 percent of the total, respectively. WASDE-603-3
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2020/21 include lower beginning stocks and higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced on a small increase in 2019/20 soybean crush. Soybean production is forecast at 4.425 billion bushels, up 290 million on higher yields. Harvested area is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.3 bushels per acre is raised 3.5 bushels from last month and is 5.9 bushels above last year’s level. Soybean supplies for 2020/21 are projected at a record 5.1 billion bushels, up 13 percent from last year. U.S. soybean exports are raised 75 million bushels to 2.13 billion on increased global import demand, increased supplies, and lower prices. Soybean crush is also raised, mainly reflecting increased soybean meal exports. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 610 million bushels, up 185 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $8.35 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $290 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 30.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent.
The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Partly offsetting higher U.S. production, foreign oilseed production is reduced 1.7 million tons to 479.6 million, mainly on lower rapeseed and sunflower seed crops. Rapeseed production is lowered for Ukraine and Kazakhstan while sunflower seed production is lowered for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Moldova.
Global 2020/21 soybean trade is raised 3.9 million tons, with higher exports for Brazil, Argentina, and the United States. This is parallel to higher imports for China, Thailand, Argentina, Egypt, and India. Soybean crush for China is raised 3.0 million tons to 98.0 million in 2020/21, but soybean meal equivalent (SME) protein growth is unchanged from last month at 5 percent due to oilseed meal consumption changes in the prior year. With higher global soybean production mostly offset by higher use, mainly in China, global ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 95.4 million. Other notable changes include higher 2020/21 peanut production for India on the rapid planting pace and higher 2019/20 Malaysian palm oil production on recent monthly output strength.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2020/21 is increased by 131,777 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 1.4053 million. Beet production is increased 198,840 STRV on increases in forecasts made by NASS for crop yields in sugarbeet-producing States. Cane sugar production in Florida is increased by 30,000 STRV based on processors’ forecasts published in Sweetener Market Data. Cane sugar production in Texas is decreased by 54,000 STRV to 81,000 on the NASS forecast of the cane yield decreasing to 21.9 tons/acre as a result of Hurricane Hanna. Imports for 2020/21 are lowered slightly, mostly on FTA sugar allocated for the 2020 calendar year entering the United States earlier in 2019/20 than forecast last month. Beginning stocks are reduced by 28,281 STRV on lower 2019/20 beet sugar production and lower imports stemming mostly from a 50,000-STRV reduction in estimated high-tier tariff imports. With no use changes, ending stocks increase to 1.788 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.6 percent.
Mexico sugar supply for 2020/21 is reduced by 221,680 metric tons (MT) to 6.896 million. Production for 2020/21 is reduced 100,000 MT to 6.0 million based on reports of long-term drought effects on sugarcane planted area. Beginning stocks are 121,680 MT lower based on an increase in 2019/20 deliveries from an unexpected jump in the pace over that estimated last month. Ending stocks for 2019/20 now represent about 2.2 months of expected use in 2020/21, down from the usual policy target of 2.5 months. For 2020/21 ending stocks are still projected at 2.5 months of anticipated use in the following year. Exports to non-U.S. destinations are projected to absorb all of the reduction in 2020/21 supply. WASDE-603-4
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2020 forecast for total meat production is lowered slightly from last month as decreases in pork production more than offset higher beef and poultry production. Higher beef production largely reflects a faster pace of steer and heifer slaughter. The pork production forecast is reduced on a slower expected pace of slaughter in the third quarter and lighter carcass weights for the year. Broiler and turkey production reflect June production data; no changes are made to forecasts for the outlying quarters. The 2020 egg production forecast is raised on hatchery data. For 2021, the red meat and poultry production forecast is unchanged from the previous month on offsetting changes in beef and broiler production. The 2021 beef production forecast is reduced from the previous month as lower expected placements in the first half of the year will be reflected in lower forecast slaughter in the second half of 2021. The 2021 broiler production forecast is raised from last month on lower feed costs. Pork and turkey production forecasts are unchanged. The egg production forecast is raised from last month.
For 2020, beef imports are raised on recent trade data and firm demand for imported processing grade beef. The beef import forecast for 2021 is also raised. The 2020 beef export forecast is decreased slightly on recent trade data. The 2020 pork trade forecast is adjusted to reflect June trade data; no changes are made to the 2021 forecasts. The 2020 broiler export forecast is reduced on recent trade data and continued slow import demand from a number of trading partners. The 2020 turkey export forecast is adjusted to reflect June data; the 2021 forecast is unchanged.
Fed cattle prices for 2020 are raised from last month on current price strength. The first-quarter 2021 fed cattle price forecast is raised, but the annual forecast is unchanged from last month. The 2020 hog price forecast is lowered on recent price pressure, but the 2021 price forecast is unchanged. The broiler price forecast for 2020 is raised fractionally on a higher forecast third quarter price. Forecasts for 2021 are unchanged. The third-quarter turkey price forecast for 2020 is raised; no change is made to the 2021 turkey price forecast. The 2020 egg price forecast is reduced on recent price weakness and supply pressure. Egg price forecasts for 2021 are also reduced as large supplies are expected to weigh on the market.
The milk production forecast for 2020 is raised from last month as higher expected growth in milk per cow more than offsets slightly lower dairy cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is raised from last month on continued strong demand for imported butter. The fat basis export forecast is raised on increased shipments of cheese and butterfat products. The skim-solids basis import forecast is lowered on recent trade data and lower expected imports of cheese and a number of other dairy products. The skim-solids basis export forecast is raised primarily on higher exports of dry skim milk products. Cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are reduced from last month. The whey price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced on lower cheese prices, while the Class IV price forecast is reduced on lower butter and NDM price forecasts. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $17.95 per cwt.
For 2021, the milk production forecast is reduced on slower growth in cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is unchanged from the previous month, while the fat basis export forecast is raised on more competitive cheese and butter prices. The skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged, but the export forecast is raised on continued strong international import demand for skim milk powder. Price forecasts for cheese and butter are lowered from the previous month, while the whey forecast is increased. The NDM price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced as the lower cheese price more than offsets the higher whey price forecast. WASDE-603-5 The Class IV price forecast is reduced on a lower butter price forecast. The all milk price forecast is unchanged at $17.05 per cwt for 2021.
COTTON: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton outlook includes higher beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks, and a decline in consumption. Production for the 2020 crop is raised 3 percent to 18.1 million bales, on NASS’s first survey-based production forecast. The survey indicates lower harvested area and higher yield compared with last month’s expectations. Abandonment is expected to rise to 24 percent—compared with 16 percent in 2019. With reduced harvested area in the Southwest, U.S. yield is projected at a record 938 pounds/acre, 14 percent higher than in 2019. Beginning stocks are raised 100,000 bales as lower than expected 2019/20 U.S. mill use offsets an upward revision in exports. Expected 2020/21 mill use is reduced 100,000 bales, while ending stocks are 800,000 bales higher. The season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 59 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous month.
This month’s 2020/21 world cotton outlook includes higher production, and ending stocks, but lower beginning stocks, consumption and trade. World production is 1.3 million bales higher as lower production in Mali and Greece is more than offset by increases for India, the United States, and Australia. Expected 2020/21 world consumption is 1.2 million bales lower this month, with declines in India, China, Pakistan, Brazil, and Indonesia offsetting gains for Bangladesh and Turkey. Imports are projected lower in Pakistan, Indonesia, and India, and higher in Bangladesh, Turkey, and Malaysia. This month, 2020/21 world ending stocks are projected 2.1 million bales higher than the previous month and 4.4 million bales higher than in 2019/20.
NOTE: The U.S. production forecasts in this report are based on conditions as of August 1. Any potential impacts from severe weather that occurred after August 1 will be reflected in future reports.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.