Tag Archives: soybeans

Summary

Grains and most of the broader commodity sector traded risk off Wednesday. Kansas City wheat was the leader to the down side with the March contract closing ten cents lower. Corona Virus selling seems to be back in full force as traders look for how much demand the virus could destroy.

According to Bloomberg the US is now the cheapest market in the world for corn and may be the only market with ample and market ready supplies.

The EIA ethanol production and stocks report showed for the week ending Jan. 24, ethanol production was lower by 20,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 1.9%, to a twelve-week low of 1.029 million b/d.
Ethanol stocks grew 0.9% to 24.2 million barrels, the largest reserves in six months and 1.1% higher than the same week last year.

 

The latest news points to the Corona Virus killing 130 worldwide and has more than 50 million people under travel bans in China. Chinese government is extending the Lunar New Year holiday to try an curb the spread of the virus. With the holiday extended Chinese markets will remain closed and the possibilities of China making any US commodity purchases are low. Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, believes the seriousness of the Corona Virus is emerging as China announced the virus may impact their GDP growth in the near term. You can hear Zuzolo’s full comments below.

USDA is reported a sale of 124,355 MT of corn sold to Mexico Tuesday morning.

USDA is reported sales of 142,428 MT of corn sold to unknown on Monday.

USDA also reported a sale of 111,252 MT of corn sold to Japan for the 2020-2021 marketing year on Monday.

USDA-NASS announced dropping conditions of hard red winter wheat. Kansas went from 40% good to excellent last month to just 34% good to excellent this week.

USDA-NASS are reporting that North Dakota has only harvested 49% of their corn crop. Based of FSA acreage numbers that would leave nearly 1,747,000 acres of corn in North Dakota unharvested.

The Association of American Railroads released the latest the weekly rail car loading numbers on Wednesday. The report showed all rail traffic down 7.1%.  Coal again took the brunt of the downside dropping 17.4% weekly rail traffic. From a negative last week grain car rail traffic tipped up 1.3% to nearly 22,000 rail cars loaded.

Livestock once again turned red on Wednesday. Early in the trade live cattle and feeder cattle futures tried to mount a rally, but it was short lived. Lean hogs were the leader to the down side nearing a limit lower move on the April contract.

Bids and asks are starting to emerge in the country. Packers are bidding $121 live in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas. Dressed bids are at $194 in Nebraska and $195 in Colorado. Feeders are currently asking $125 live and $201 dressed.

The pork carcass is nearing it’s resistance point of $80 and bellies are back above $100 this could help lend more support to the lean hog complex.

Retail meat prices are mixed this week. According to USDA data the top 15 cut average for beef is $5.01/lbs compared to $5.44/lbs last week and $4.96/lbs a year ago. Pork 4 cut average is $3.15/lb compared to $3.00/lb last week and $3.14/lb last year. Bacon prices are $4.79/lbs compared to $4.73/lbs a week ago and $4.90/lbs a year ago.  Chicken 3 cut average was $1.56/lbs compared to $1.69/lbs last week and $1.78/lbs a year ago.

The USDA cattle on feed numbers for January were closely aligned with pre-report expectations. Jerry Stowell, Country Futures, said, “If you were looking for a surprising USDA report you are going to have to look else where this report is very neutral.” Listen to Jerry’s full comments below.

USDA Actual Average Estimate Range
On Feed Jan. 1 102% 102.2% 101.6-102.5%
Placed in December 103% 103.2% 100.5-105.3%
Marketed in December 105% 105.2% 103.9-105.8%

 

 

Beef Cutout at Midday Wednesday

Choice up 0.98 213.83

Select dn 0.13 212.03

C/S Spread 1.80

Loads 70
Pork
Carcass dn 2.85 73.03
Bellies dn .01 106.05

 

Cattle Slaughter

121,000 hd today 123,000 hd wk ago  112,060 hd yr ago

Hog Slaughter

498,000 hd today  498,000 hd wk ago  112,060 hd yr ago

Grain Settlements

  • Corn   dn 2- 2 3/4
  • Soybeans dn  3/4 – 2
  • Chicago Wheat  dn 6 1/4 – 7 1/2
  • Kansas City Wheat dn 8 1/2 – 10

Livestock Settlements

  • Live Cattle dn 0.40 – 0.55
  • Feeder Cattle dn 0.42 – 0.90
  • Lean Hogs dn 1.37 – 2.47
  • Class III Milk up  0.02 – 0.25

 Pre-opening Market Broker  Commentary

Mark Gold, Top Third Ag Marketing, discusses overnight grains and what the trade may see today. The US Dollar is near multi year highs on Corona Virus buying, but Gold says there is some fund money looking for a new home and it very well could be commodities.


Jerry Stowell, Country Futures, discusses factors influencing the livestock trade today. With the recent weakness in cattle futures Stowell is concerned feeders may be willing to sell at lower cash.


Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, shares his thoughts on the midday trade factors.


Closing commentary with John Payne, Daniels Ag Marketing, and Jack Fenske, York Commodities.


Jerry Stowell, Country Futures, breaks down the cattle on feed report.

Heather Ramsey, ARC Group, talks China, Corona Virus, flow, and Brazilian soybeans. The Corona Virus kept the entire market space in a fear grip for most of the trading day. China is considering extending is Lunar New Year celebration in an effort to curb the spread of the virus.  Export inspections were not exciting and mostly expected. Except for wheat which came in below analysts expectations. Brazilian soybean harvest is about 9% behind where it was a year ago.

There are plenty of factors currently impacting the market trade Ramsey shows how timing over historical periods are still very important to a farm marketing strategy.

Ramsey says, “As farmers were worried about protecting from lower prices. We can always handle higher prices by selling more.”

China’s purchases of U.S. pork and soybeans rebounded in November and December, ahead of today’s (Wednesday’s) signing of the phase one trade agreement between the two nations.

Reuters reports that Chinese agricultural imports from the United States were at 14.1 billion yuan, or $2 billion, in December. A Chinese customs spokesperson says the increase in imports of soybeans and pork comes as “positive U.S.-China trade sentiment has boosted companies’ confidence in December.” African swine fever has severely reduced China’s hog herd, the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork.

China has since increased exports of U.S. pork to record levels. Pork exports to China and Hong Kong were up 49 percent in value at $1.18 billion from January to November 2019. Consumer prices for pork in China nearly doubled since the initial outbreak of African swine fever, and efforts to rebuild the hog herd in China are slow going. China has also released frozen pork from state-owned reserves to help ease the situation for consumers.

President Donald Trump says he’ll sign the first phase of a trade deal with China at the White House on Jan. 15.

Trump says Tuesday on Twitter that he’ll then travel to Beijing at a later date for talks aimed at reaching agreement on outstanding sticking points in the U.S.-China trade relationship.

In the deal reached earlier in December, the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on China and China agreed to buy larger quantities of U.S. farm products, such as soybeans. Remaining sticking points would be worked out during a second round of trade talks.

What do U.S. soybean farmers and global aquaculture have in common? Quite a bit, actually, especially in helping to make fish farming more sustainable and scalable.

Working towards Sustainability in Global Fish Farming

For nearly 30 years, the U.S. Soybean Export Council’s (USSEC) aquaculture program, funded by the soybean checkoff, has provided critical training and technical knowledge for global aquaculture — ranging from small family fish farms in Asia to large international operations that provide fish for your local supermarket and large global retailers like Costco and Walmart.

Beginning in the 1990s, the program worked to transition Chinese fish farms from manure-based feed to formulated pellet feed, and over the years has provided training to improve feed and farming methods that improve food safety and sustainability, while lessening environmental impact.

Four Areas of Focus Help to Shape Sustainable Aquaculture

In aquaculture, USSEC focuses on four areas: feed, technology advancements, aquaculture investment, and sustainability. USSEC works to optimize and demonstrate the value of U.S. Soy through all of these efforts. Let’s take a look at each.

Feed: USSEC’s technical experts work with feed mills and farmers to develop feed formulations, feed demonstrations, and best feed practices. USSEC’s partnership with business and academia on the International Aquaculture Feed Formulation Database provides valuable training for feed formulators. And aquafeed formulation research made possible by soy industry support is archived for public use.

Technology Advancements:  Hatchery improvements, genetic/breeding advancements, and the In-pond Raceway System (IPRS) technology transfer ensure better fish health and safety, water conservation, less environmental impact and higher yields. USSEC holds educational field trips and seminars to share best practices of successful farms.

Aquaculture Investment:  U.S. Soy’s renowned Aquaculture Investment Workshops promote investment in aquaculture infrastructure in Latin America so that industry can expand to meet global demand.

Sustainability:  All of the U.S. Soy aquaculture program’s initiatives are based on making global aquaculture more sustainable. The U.S. Soy Sustainability Assurance Protocol (SSAP) allows for soy feed ingredients to be certified sustainable, and USSEC works closely with aquaculture sustainability certification programs such as BAP and ASC so that the SSAP is accepted as a standard for sustainable soy.

U.S. Soy: A Sustainable Alternative

High quality U.S. soybeans help to increase the affordability and sustainability of the world’s supply of healthy, farm-raised seafood and can replace much of the fishmeal in feeds for many farmed species, thus reducing the pressure on wild fish resources.