Tag Archives: WASDE

 Even with a higher old-crop carryover, USDA on Friday found lowered corn production and maintained demand for the 2020-21 corn crop, leading to a forecast of lower ending stocks for the crop.

USDA on Friday released the July report for the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) as well as the Crop Production report.

For corn, USDA bumped up the carryover into 2020-21 by 145 million bushels (mb) while lowering production with fewer acres to 15 billion bushels (bb) even. That led to a decline in ending stocks at 2.648 bb, slightly lower than the average pre-report estimate.

You can access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

Keeping with the June Acreage report, USDA pegged corn acreage to 92 million acres but maintained the yield at 178.5 bushels per acre (bpa), pegging crop production at 15 bb, down from 995 mb from the June estimate.

The pre-report analyst average pegged crop production at 15.06 bb.

Ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop were pegged at 2.648 bb, down from 3.23 bb in the June report. The pre-report average for ending stocks was forecast at 2.73 bb.

Corn exports remained at 2.15 bb, the same as June. Feed and residual demand was projected at 5.85 bb, down from 6.05 bb in June. Ethanol demand remained steady, projected at 5.2 bb.

Total demand for the 2020-21 crop was forecast at 14.625 bb. With lower ending stocks at 2.648 bb, that put the stocks-to-use ratio for the 2020-21 crop at 18.1%.

The average farm-gate price was projected at $3.35 per bushel, a 15-cent bump from the June report.

Globally, corn production for the 2019-20 crop year for Brazil was forecast at 101 million metric tons (3.97 bb) and Argentina’s crop was pegged at 50 mmt (1.97 bb).

Looking ahead, USA lowered global beginning stocks for the 2020-21 crop year to 311.95 mmt, down 960,000 metric tons from the June report. Production was also lowered global production 25.27 mmt to 1,163.21 mmt. With demand and use holding steady, that leads to the 2020-21 global ending stocks being lowered to 315.04 mmt, down 22.83 mmt from June.

SOYBEANS

For the 2020-21 marketing year, U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecast at 425 mb, an increase of 30 mb from the USDA’s June estimate. The agency made no changes to the new-crop demand estimates, rather attribute to the change to higher supplies.

USDA increased its production forecast to 4.14 bb, incorporating its higher forecast for soybean acreage. USDA also increased its beginning stocks estimate.

On the old-crop balance sheet, USDA’s forecast for ending stocks increased 35 mb to 620 mb, toward the high side of pre-report estimates. USDA reduced residual usage for soybeans by 50 mb, which it says reflects the recent Grain Stocks report and reported soybean usage through May.

The season average farm gate price for 2020-21 increased $0.30 from last month to $8.50 per bushel.

Globally, new-crop ending stocks declined by 1.26 mmt to 95.1 mmt, below the average trade estimate. USDA said it expects lower production globally along with a slowdown in exports and increase in crush.

For 2019-20 crop year, global ending stocks totaled 99.67 mmt. The 2019-20 Brazilian production estimate was increased by 2 mmt to 126 mmt while the Argentine production estimate was left unchanged at 50 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA raised old-crop ending stocks 61 mb to 1.04 bb. Wheat production for 2020-21 was lowered 53 mb to 1.824 bb.

Food demand for the 2020-21 crop held steady at 964 mb, but USDA lowered feed and residual use 10 mb to 90 mb. That brought down total domestic use 10 mb to 1.115 bb. The export forecast remained the same at 950 mb.

Ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop were increased to 942 mb in the report, up from 925 million bushels last month.

The average farm-gate price for the 2020-21 crop remained at $4.60 a bushel as well.

USDA is still forecasting another record world wheat crop for the 2020-21 marketing year — 769.3 mmt — although that forecast declined from last month. USDA expects European production to decline by 1.5 mmt, primarily due to reduction in France and Spain. Russia production was cut by 500,000 metric tons while Morocco’s was slashed by 800,000 mt.

As a result, USDA forecast global ending stocks at 314.84 mmt, but remains a record-large number, with China and India holding 51% and 10% of the world’s stockpiles.

LIVESTOCK

Beef production increased in the latest WASDE report, with expected production increasing to 7.02 billion pounds through the third quarter. This is up from a 6.9-billion-pound estimate in June.

The continued focus on short-term production through both third and fourth quarter will likely create additional price pressure through the end of the year.

Pork production also sparked strong gains following the expectation that increased hog supply numbers will be seen through most of the year based on plant production challenges through the early half of 2020. Pork production in the third quarter is expected to be at 7.3 billion pounds, up 310 million pounds from the June report.

Beef and pork demand is expected to see additional firmness as the focus on reduced wholesale and retail prices through the summer months is starting to create additional demand support through the entire market. Projected beef demand for 2020 is expected to be 27.1 billion pounds, while pork demand for the year is expected at 21.99 billion pounds.

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U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2020-21
Jul Avg High Low Jun 2019-20
Corn 15,000 15,060 15,296 14,994 15,995 13,617
Soybeans 4,135 4,167 4,382 4,133 4,125 3,552
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2020-21 (WASDE)
Jul Avg High Low Jun 2019-20
Corn 178.5 178.9 181.0 178.0 178.5 167.4
Soybeans 49.8 50.1 52.8 49.8 49.8 47.4
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20
Jul Avg High Low Jun
Corn 2,248 2,286 2,403 2,200 2,103
Soybeans 620 589 635 535 585
Wheat 1,044 1,042 1,053 1,010 983
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2020-21
Jul Average High Low Jun
Corn 2,648 2,782 3,010 2,525 3,323
Soybeans 425 443 572 355 395
Wheat 942 959 1,006 875 925
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2019-20
Jul Avg High Low Jun
Corn 312.0 315.7 320.5 311.8 312.9
Soybeans 99.7 99.5 101.0 98.0 99.2
Wheat 297.1 297.1 298.0 296.0 295.8
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2020-21
Jul Avg. High Low Jun
Corn 315.0 325.6 340.0 310.0 337.9
Soybeans 95.1 97.7 107.6 94.7 96.3
Wheat 314.8 315.5 317.6 311.8 316.1
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2019-20
Jul Avg High Low Jun 2018-19
CORN
Argentina 50.0 49.9 50.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
Brazil 101.0 100.8 103.0 99.0 101.0 101.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina 50.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 50.0 55.3
Brazil 126.0 123.4 125.0 122.0 124.0 119.0
U.S. PRODUCTION (million bushels) 2020-21
Jul Avg. High Low Jun 2019-20
All Wheat 1,824 1,855 1,885 1,826 1,877 1,920
Winter 1,304 1,249 1,285 1,227 1,266 1,304
HRW 710 732 760 710 743 833
SRW 280 291 301 269 297 239
White 275 225 230 219 225 232
Other Spring 550 548 564 529 N/A 562
Durum 56 59 65 52 N/A 54
  • What is the current driving force in the markets?
  • What role are the funds currently playing in the corn and soybean markets?
  • How does a weather market normally progress?
  • What are you expecting for changes in the WASDE report for corn?
  • Are you expecting much for changes the WASDE report for soybeans?

 

 USDA on Thursday released its June Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. For 2020/2021 production corn and soybeans remained unchanged from the May report.

USDA dropped new-crop (2020-21) soybean ending stocks to 395 million bushels (mb), the lowest predicted possibility among pre-report analyst estimates. That change was driven largely by higher than expected soybean crush forecast, USDA said.

CORN

USDA raised old-crop ending stocks by 5 mb to 2.103 billion bushels (bb). That bumped up the new stocks for the 2020-21 crop, which was the only real numbers change made in the 2020-21 demand and use figures for corn.

Ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop were increased 5 mb to 3.323 bb.

USDA maintained planted acres for the 2020-21 corn crop at 97 million acres with a yield estimate at 178.5 bushels per acres (bpa) and production pegged at 15.995 bb.

USDA pegged feed and residual use for the 2020-21 crop at 6.05 bb and also maintained ethanol demand for the year at 5.2 bb. Exports were projected at 2.15 bb. All of those figures were the same as the May report.

Total demand for the 2020-21 crop is pegged at 14.8 bb. With a 3.323 bb ending stocks, that puts the stocks-to-use ratio at 22.4%.

In the old crop, USDA lowered production by 45 mb but also lowered ethanol demand another 50 mb, dropping it to 4.9 bb. That led to the 5-million bushel carryover.

The average farm-gate price was projected at $3.20 a bushel, the same as May.

Globally, corn production for the 2019-20 crop year for Brazil and Argentina remained the same as April. Brazil was pegged at 101 million metric tons (mmt) and 50 mmt for Argentina.

SOYBEANS

As expected, USDA left new crop (2020-21) soybean production unchanged at 4.125 bb, with average yield pegged at 49.8 bpa on 83.5 million planted acres.

As mentioned, new crop ending stocks were pegged at 395 mb, a lower-than-expected drop thanks to increased soybean crush forecast offsetting slightly higher beginning stocks and imports. Specifically, soybean crush was increased by 15 mb, beginning stocks were raised by 5 mb.

At 585 mb, old crop (2019-20) soybean ending stocks came within the range of pre-report analyst estimates.

Farm-gate soybean prices were pegged at $8.20 per bushel for new-crop soybeans, down from $8.50 per bushel for old-crop.

Globally, old crop soybean ending stocks were estimated at 99.19 mmt, down from the 100.3 mmt estimate in May and within analyst expectations. New crop ending stocks were pegged at 96.34 mmt, on the low end of analyst estimates, and down from 98.39 mmt in May.

USDA left old crop soybean production in Brazil at 124 mmt, despite concerns of dry weather depressing yields there. Argentina’s soybean production was trimmed from May’s estimate by 1 mmt to 50 mmt, down from 55.3 mmt last year.

WHEAT

USDA also raised the carryover for wheat by 5 mb, but USDA also raised wheat production for the 2020-21 crop by 11 mb to 1.877 bb as well. The 5 mb carryover came from lowering exports for the 2019-20 crop by that volume.

Total supply was pegged at 3 bb. Food use remained the same as May at 964 mb. Feed and residual use remained at 100 mb. Exports also held the same as May at 950 mb.

Ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop were increased 16 mb to 925 mb.

The average farm gate price for the 2020-21 crop remained at $4.60 a bushel as well.

World wheat supplies for 2020-21 were increased 5.7 mmt on a 4.9 mmt increase in production and higher beginning stocks. USDA raised production for both India, up 4.2 mmt, and Australia, up 2 mmt. USDA lowered wheat production in the European Union by 2 mmt and also lowered Ukraine production by 1.5 mmt.

LIVESTOCK

Total annual beef production projections were increased by 910 million pounds in the June estimate from the May report, with estimated beef production is currently at 26.67 billion pounds. Pork production increased moderately from the May levels with a boost of 340 million pounds on an annual basis.

The focus on returning to more normal production levels following the last two months of corona virus shutdowns and reduced plant capacity is putting the expectation that 2020 production would be 98% of 2019 beef production, while pork production is estimated at 100.4% of 2019 levels.

Projected price levels have shifted moderately from the previous report with average projected steer prices increasing $4.50 per cwt from May estimates, while Barrow and gilt prices remain under pressure, falling $0.70 per cwt from May levels.

Steer prices are projected to dip to $104 per cwt in the 3rd quarter, while moving higher again at the end of the year to $106 per cwt, the same price level expected for second quarter. Hog prices are expected to increase moderately in the third and fourth quarters from current second-quarter estimates, but limited aggressive movement is likely to be seen in hog prices before the end of the year.

Meat demand is expected to slowly increase from May levels, with June projections pushing meat annual beef production of 103% of May’s estimate, while essentially stable with 2019 levels. Pork demand is projected to rise in the June projections, 101% of May estimates, but overall pork utilization and use is now projected to fall from 2019 levels, with current estimates at 98.1% of year ago levels.

US Corn & Soybean Production 2020 Millions of Bushels June Average Range USDA May USDA 2019
Corn 15,995 15,924 15544-15995 15995 13,663
avg. yield 178.5 178.5 176-180 178.5 167.8
Soybeans 4,125 4,152 4125-4292 4,125 3557
avg yield 49.8 50 49.8-51 49.8 47.4
US 19-20 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels June Average Range USDA May
Corn 2.103 2.154 2.075-2.303 2.098
Soybeans 585 584 497-630 580
Wheat 983 904 876-934 909
US 20-21 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels June Average Range USDA May
Corn 3.323 3.34 3.177-3.594 3.318
Soybeans 395 459 395-684 4015
Wheat 925 904 876-934 N/A
World Stockpiles19-20 Million Metric Tons June Average Range USDA May
Corn 312.9 315.1 312.4-319.7 314.7
Soybeans 99.2 100.3 98.5-103.1 100.3
Wheat 295.8 294.7 292-296 295.1
World Stockpiles 20-21 Million Metric Tons June Average Range USDA May
Corn 337.9 337.6 314-346.6 339.6
Soybeans 96.3 100.1 96-118.2 98.4
Wheat 316.1 307.5 298.5-312 310.1
US Wheat Production Est. 2020 June Average Range USDA May USDA 19-20
All Wheat 1,877 1,852 1824-1892 1866 1,920
Winter Wheat 1,266 1,255 1,200-1,318 1255 1,304
Hard Red Winter 743 754 678-830 733 833
Soft Red Winter 297 291 201-305 298 239
White Winter 226 225 218-234 224 232
Brazilian Production 2019-2020 (Million Metric Tons) June Average Range USDA May
Corn 101 99.6 98.5-102 101
Soybeans 124 123 120.9-125 124
Argentina Crop Production 2019-2020 (Million Metric Tons) June Average Range USDA May
Corn 50 49.9 49-50 50
Soybeans 50 50.8 50-51.2 51

The spring has been a productive time for the American farmer.

Planting has been largely unhindered and is near done for corn and well over 75% complete for soybeans. This has farmers, economists and commodity traders all curious where USDA will peg harvest size and stocks in the June WASDE report. The report is slated to release at 12 ET on Thursday June 11. The Wall Street Journal has composed a table of analyst estimates ahead of the report that can be seen below.

US corn production looks to drop about 71 million bushels from the May report to 15.924 billion bushels. The drop comes as traders assume some acres in North Dakota will have some prevent plant acres. Average yield for the US corn crop remains unchanged by analysts from the May report at 178.5 bushels per acre.

US soybean production is expected to increase by 27 million bushels from the May report to 4.152 billion bushels. The increase comes as analysts expect soybean yield to increase 0.2 bushels per acre to 50 bushels per acre.

Given mixed export numbers and an economy that was shuttered due to the pandemic, US stockpiles are expected to grow. Corn sees the largest expected growth with ethanol production dropping sharply. Analysts are expecting US corn stocks in June to be 2.154 billion bushels up from May’s 2.098 billion bushels. Soybean stockpiles are expected to rise 4 million bushels to 584 million bushels. Wheat stockpiles are expected to grow 2 million bushels to 980 million bushels.

With the large crops and growing, current stockpiles of grain in the US the 2020-2021 stockpiles continue to grow. Analysts predict in one year the US will have a stockpile of 3.340 billion bushels of corn,  459 million bushels of soybeans and 904 million bushels of soybeans.

US Corn & Soybean Production 2020 Millions of Bushels June Average Range USDA May USDA 2019
Corn 15,924 15544-15995 15995 13,663
avg. yield 178.5 176-180 178.5 167.8
Soybeans 4,152 4125-4292 4,125 3,557
avg yield 50 49.8-51 49.8 47.4
US 19-20 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels June Average Range USDA May
Corn 2.154 2.075-2.303 2.098
Soybeans 584 497-630 580
Wheat 904 876-934 909
US 20-21 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels June Average Range USDA May
Corn 3.34 3.177-3.594 3.318
Soybeans 459 395-684 4015
Wheat 904 876-934 N/A
World Stockpiles19-20 Million Metric Tons June Average Range USDA May
Corn 315.1 312.4-319.7 314.7
Soybeans 100.3 98.5-103.1 100.3
Wheat 294.7 292-296 295.1
World Stockpiles 20-21 Million Metric Tons June Average Range USDA May
Corn 337.6 314-346.6 339.6
Soybeans 100.1 96-118.2 98.4
Wheat 307.5 298.5-312 310.1
US Wheat Production Est. 2020 June Average Range USDA May USDA 19-20
All Wheat 1,852 1824-1892 1866 1,920
Winter Wheat 1,255 1,200-1,318 1255 1,304
Hard Red Winter 754 678-830 733 833
Soft Red Winter 291 201-305 298 239
White Winter 225 218-234 224 232
Brazilian Production 2019-2020 (Million Metric Tons) June Average Range USDA May
Corn 99.6 98.5-102 101
Soybeans 123 120.9-125 124
Argentina Crop Production 2019-2020 (Million Metric Tons) June Average Range USDA May
Corn 49.9 49-50 50
Soybeans 50.8 50-51.2 51