Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue talked over the weekend about his willingness to make changes in National Ag Statistics Service methods of crop data collection.
A Farm Journal article says during 2019 and it’s many challenges, many farmers were openly questioning the crop projections that were coming from NASS throughout the year. Perdue admits that he had some concerns about their crop reports and the survey methods NASS uses. “In fact, it was kind of paranoia in light of all the prevented planting and other kinds of things that were falling on us,” he recalled. “We got a little conspiratorial too, thinking NASS was also out to get us.” He thinks the NASS numbers that took the market by surprise last June might have been more correct than the market ultimately was in its reaction.
However, that doesn’t mean Perdue thinks the methodology for estimating crop size couldn’t be improved. “We’re going to get better,” Perdue says. “If you’ve got an idea about how we can better use electronics, or maybe an app for better surveys, we’d love to hear about it. We’re open to the kind of ideas of using modern technology to get you the best data that you can use to make plans for your farm.”
Quiet start with the livestock. Tone of the beef is just okay…macro’s have Brad concerned just a bit. Cash cattle. Average weights are disturbing. Year on year comparisons come in higher. Is the market tired for the cattle? Hogs continue to torment. New virus in China-how is that going to affect the markets & heading into the Chinese New Year Celebration. Beans took it in the shorts-is it weather in South America, corn did better but problems talked about it in a variety including wheat.
Brandon Benitz & Clay Patton sit down to talk about wheat production during Harry S. Truman’s time on the farm & compare it to today…
Tomorrow’s signing day with China. A lot of stories about what be included. WTO guidelines. Chinese imports. Bird flu update for China. Turkey’s in Northern Hungary as well. We continue to see tight ethanol supplies. Weather updates for South America. Corn harvest 2% done in Brazil. Global wheat crop. Livestock market & what China’s hog market looks like. Some short term technical on cattle.
Pre-Report trade. If the wheat is leading higher on the S&D Report the dollar will have a reaction. Trade might not be worried about the corn. bullish surprise in the report though could be the corn, seeing where we are at in harvest. Phase Two comes after elections. Phase one is on track for January 15th. Iran still being talked about. World Supply Demands with South America. Winter seeding for the wheat brought to the front of the classroom. USMCA. Wall Street Journal & the tide turning. Cattle market & waiting for the cash continues to be on the quiet side.
Quiet grain trade, full trading week, coming out of holidays, focus turning towards taxes. China signing, USMCA talk. Political action, South America. Now into an election year. USDA report out on Friday. Corn & wheat lower, beans higher. Struggles in Australia & the effects on the U.S. markets. Strong start to the marketing week for cattle. Is there a chance for a pull back on cattle Tuesday?
President Donald Trump says he’ll sign the first phase of a trade deal with China at the White House on Jan. 15.
Trump says Tuesday on Twitter that he’ll then travel to Beijing at a later date for talks aimed at reaching agreement on outstanding sticking points in the U.S.-China trade relationship.
In the deal reached earlier in December, the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on China and China agreed to buy larger quantities of U.S. farm products, such as soybeans. Remaining sticking points would be worked out during a second round of trade talks.
When news broke about the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China, it made the soybean industry especially happy. A Bloomberg report says don’t forget about wheat, which could also be a big winner in the agreement.
Speculation is rising that China will work to fill its wheat-buying quota as part of the agreement. That will likely create new demand for wheat because China has failed to live up to its wheat-purchasing promises in the past. Soybean purchases are likely to be somewhat more limited because of the African Swine Fever outbreak across the country, which will lower typical demand levels.
If Chinese wheat purchases were to reach the quota mark of 9.6 million tons, that would represent a huge demand jump. In the six years prior to and up through 2017, buying has averaged less than 50 percent of that allotment. The timing could be good for U.S. farmers.
Tighter corn supplies in Brazil and wheat supplies in Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, have made American grain more competitively priced in the world market. That’s already causing Chinese importers to begin to boost their purchase levels from the U.S.
Holiday shortened week. A look back at 2019 & damage done to the market trade
Top factors going into 2020
Grains saw a bounce in the corn, China deal still needs to be inked out. South America has good weather in Brazil-putting added pressure to bean demand, Argentina has been hot & dry. Soybeans have had some oversold levels. Bullish to the beans. Basis to remain strong going into 2020. COF report out on Friday & cash cattle thoughts.