- Rough day in the soybeans, but a negative day isn’t a bad thing
- China keeps purchasing U.S. beans
- Spillover pressure for the wheat from the row crops
- Equity markets around the world were falling on a Monday
- Cash Cattle prices
- Friday COF Report
While the markets took a wild ride on Monday the NASS crop progress report looks fairly uneventful. Row crop harvest is getting started somewhat ahead of the five year average. That has been expected by many though given the early and swift planting that occurred. After big double digit increases in the soil moisture profile last week dry conditions have set back in and are slowly taking the soil moisture down.
In a full breakdown of the report we start with corn in the dent stage. It’s essientially complete across the country this week at 95%. That is up 6% from last week and still 5% ahead of the five year average. 97% of Nebraska corn is in the dent stage, 96% of Kansas corn is in the dent stage and 94% of Iowa corn is in the dent stage. All just a few points ahead of the five year average.
Corn maturity is also moving along swiftly with a nationwide rating of 59%. That is an 18% increase in the mature corn from a week ago. It’s also perfectly 10% ahead of the five year average. In the Midwest; 93% of the Nebraska corn crop is mature, 81% of the Kansas corn crop is mature and 66% of the Iowa corn crop is mature. All of these are ahead of their respective five year average, except Kansas which is 1% behind the five year average.
Corn harvest slowly moves along in the country up 3% nationwide from last week to 8% complete. Unlike the rest of the corn stages harvest is actually behind the five year average of 10%. Texas is by far the farthest along in corn harvest with 69% of the crop out of the field. Nebraska has 10% of the corn harvested. Iowa has 4% of the corn harvested. All these states are still ahead of their five year average. Kansas on the other hand has harvested 16% of their corn crop is 6% behind the five year average.
Finally with corn the overall condition of the crop remains little changed from last week. Nationwide the crop ticked up 1% to 61% good to excellent. Nebraska corn increased 3% to 63% good to excellent. Kansas corn remains unchanged week to week at 54% good to excellent. Iowa corn also remains unchanged week to week at 42% good to excellent. Illinois corn follows the Nebraska plan with corn conditions rising 3% to 73% good to excellent.
Staying with row crops soybean dropping leaves is now considered 59% complete across the country. That helps it stay 9% ahead of the five year average. 82% of the Nebraska soybean crop has dropped leaves, 48% of the Kansas soybean crop has dropped leaves and 66% of the Iowa soybean crop has dropped leaves. All of these are well ahead of their five year average.
Soybean harvest is also now far enough along to be recognized by crop progress. Nationwide 6% of the soybean crop has been harvested. That is fully steady with the 5 year average. In Nebraska 10% of the soybean crop has been harvested. Iowa, 7% of the soybean crop has been harvested and in Kansas 2% of the soybean crop has been harvested. All of these are well ahead of the five year average of Kansas takes the cake doubling their five year average for soybean harvest.
Just as corn soybean condition rating is relatively unchanged week to week. Nationally the soybean crop is rated 63% good to excellent, unchanged week to week. Also remaining unchanged week to week is Illinois soybeans at 71% good to excellent and Iowa soybeans at 48% good to excellent. Nebraska soybeans actually increased 2% week to week at 66% good to excellent. Kansas was one of the few states to see an actual decrease in soybean conditions with a drop of 6% to 45% good to excellent.
Now to sorghum. Sorghum maturity continues to be ahead of the five year average with a national rating of 51% mature, 3% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska sorghum has reached 49% maturity. A solid 13% ahead of the five year average.
Sorghum harvest is starting to get underway. Nationwide 27% of the sorghum crop is out of the field. That is 2% behind the five year average. In Nebraska 2% of the sorghum crop is harvested. 1% behind the five year average.
Nationwide the sorghum crop is rated 51% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. In Nebraska the sorghum crop is rated 66% good to excellent. A sharp 6% decline from last week.
Winter wheat continues to go into the ground with 20% of the national crop planted. Just 1% ahead of five year average. Nebraska is well ahead of the Kansas at 40% planted. Kansas is 14% planted.
Winter wheat is also starting to emerge with 3% of the national crop above ground. 1% of the Kansas crop has emerged and 0% of the Nebraska crop has emerged.
After big gains last week pasture and range conditions fall this week. Kansas range condition fell 4% to 37% good to excellent. Nebraska pasture condition fell 1% to 40% good to excellent.
Soil moisture was also tightened this week due to dry conditions re-emerging. In Nebraska the topsoil rating dropped 6% to 48% adequate to surplus and the subsoil rating dropped 3% to 44% adequate to surplus. In Kansas topsoil moisture was unchanged week to week at 63% adequate to surplus, subsoil moisture actually increased 2% to 62% good to excellent.
You can see the USDA report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/2227nd802/h415q0669/prog3920.pdf
Clay Patton recaps the report here:
Thursday brought about another strong day of gains in the grain market. Soybeans continue to hold well over the $10 mark. Looking at a continuous chart that puts soybeans back towards highs not seen since early 2018 before the US China trade war kicked off. Kyle Bumsted with Allendale Inc. believes this now give farmers a unique opportunity to go back and visit their marketing strategy. 2019 has been a year that farmers have seen plenty of government payments, but now the market seems to be giving opportunity to market at a profitable level.
Bumsted also gives strong insight into why the feeder cattle corn spread may be nearing it’s useful end. Rather feeders are looking at the cash difference between the fats getting on the truck and the lightweights coming off the truck. Finally there is the lean hog market that really caught fire on Thursday. Could it be starting to get top heavy or is there more room to go higher?
You can hear all of Bumstead’s comments here:
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell on a turn around Tuesday in the ag commodity markets. Zuzolo highlights that today’s pullback was bound to happen sooner rather than later. Still in the soybean complex it’s good to see the July contract holding the strong physiological level of ten dollars. Now the question becomes can the current run of Chinese demand and South American production workout to allow the rally to continue. Zuzolo also breaks down the current buys being made by China and how they compare in the big picture of the Phase One Trade Deal.
In the second half of the program Zuzolo talks funds in the ag commodities and livestock. Cattle may be starting to hit overbought levels despite the fact cattle seasonally are in a slump after the Labor Day holiday. The conversation ends on the importance African Swine Fever still has on the markets.
Catch the full show here:
As expected USDA and the World Outlook Board lowered their predictions for US production of corn and soybeans. Soybean ending stocks were also reduced giving bulls there added incentive to continue buying. USDA also excluded 550,000 acres of corn in Iowa due to the derecho wind event.
Wheat may be the biggest loser on the day with USDA raising it’s estimate of Australian production. US and global stocks also appear to be plentiful for wheat.
|US Corn & Soybean Production 2020 Millions of Bushels||September||Average||Range||USDA August||USDA 2019|
|US 19-20 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels||September||Average||Range||USDA August|
|US 20-21 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels||September||Average||Range||USDA August|
|World Stockpiles19-20 Million Metric Tons||September||Average||Range||USDA August|
|World Stockpiles 20-21 Million Metric Tons||September||Average||Range||USDA August|
Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing joins the Fontanelle Final Bell as the markets get back to work after the Labor Day holiday. In the grains they essentially picked up where they left off last week. Soybeans notched their 11th consecutive higher close. The rally partially driven by strong Chinese demand. However Hudson is cautious to ride the Chinese demand bull to far because China has spoken for a lot of grain, but has not taken a lot of delivery yet.
Hudson also covers how the current moisture and cool temperatures could impact markets. Overall he expects the impact to be negligible as the moisture may be a little to late and frosty temperatures not too damaging.
Catch the full episode here:
MANHATTAN, Kan. – Kansas State University researchers have released findings of a study to identify the best-performing varieties when producers are growing wheat for grain and grazing, known as a dual-purpose system.
K-State Research and Extension wheat specialist Romulo Lollato said he and his colleagues tested 28 wheat varieties at the South Central Experiment Field near Hutchinson – simulating grazing the crop in the winter and early spring and harvesting grain in the summer – to determine how the performance of different wheat varieties compared when managed under the dual-purpose system versus a grain-only system.
Their results are now available in a publication available from the K-State Research and Extension bookstore.
“The three most important things that we need to keep in mind when selecting a wheat variety for a dual purpose system are fall forage production, the date of the first hollow stem and how varieties respond to grazing stress,” Lollato said.
The yield potential of fall forage is important because it affects the potential beef production from cattle grazing wheat in the fall, winter and spring. Lollato said approximately 100 pounds of beef can be produced for every 1,000 pounds of dry matter, wheat forage production in an acre.
The date of the first hollow stem will determine when producers should stop grazing cattle. Grazing past the first hollow stem can decrease the following spring’s wheat yield by as much as 1% to 5% per day, Lollato said.
How well wheat varieties respond to stress often shows up in its’ grain yield following grazing, as compared to the ungrazed counterparts.
“The recovery of wheat varieties from grazing is very specific to the variety,” Lollato said.
He said that one trend researchers found in their study is that wheat yields in a grain-only system might not necessarily indicate how a variety would stack up in a dual-purpose system.
“What we saw this year is typically what we see year in and year out,” Lollato said. “Sometimes in the dual purpose situation, we have different varieties showing up toward the top (of the wheat yield rankings). The potential to bounce back from grazing is showing up whenever we look at the ranking of those varieties in the dual purpose situation.”
For example, Lollato said a few varieties were among the top yielding group in both grazed and ungrazed scenarios, including Rock Star (a Polansky variety) and two Westbred varieties, WB4269 and WB4699.
“When evaluating the grazed plus grain group only, other varieties, including a few from Oklahoma State University, also appeared in the top yielding group, showing that those varieties might be better suited for the dual-purpose system,” he said.
The researchers tested several varieties grown in Kansas and the surrounding region, including varieties from Oklahoma. The new publication outlines those varieties that are expected to be the best candidates for a dual-purpose system, based on being exposed to grazing stress during the early stages of development.
Lollato also has posted the publication and other updates regarding Kansas wheat production on Twitter; search for @KSUWheat.